Between Putin and Macron: What benefit is Xi Jinping in the Russian-Ukrainian War
This can be his first foreign trip after re -election for a new presidential term, Reuters reports, citing five sources. According to one of them, the Kremlin head to Beijing is likely to take place in the second half of May. At the same time, other agency's interlocutors claim that Putin's visit is scheduled earlier than a trip to Europe to Europe, which is planned for early May.
The fact that one of the key goals of Xi Jinping's visit to the French capital is to persuade Europe to allow Russia to sit at the table of future peace talks about Ukraine, reports Politico, citing several high -ranking officials in Paris and Brussels. It is in particular about the "Summit of Peace", which will be held in Switzerland according to the "formula of Zelensky".
It should be noted that recently the Ambassador of China to Switzerland van Schiting allowed his country to participate in a peaceful summit, and a representative of China at the UN Gene Shuan during a meeting of the Security Council on March 15 stated that Ukraine and the Russian Federation may start peace talk Beijing. In this context, it is appropriate to cite Moscow's position.
And the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation recently stated that Russia will not participate in the summit organized by Ukraine, even if it is invited there. That is, the PRC draws its line, despite the signals from the Kremlin. Meanwhile, the participation of China in the West and in Ukraine that many analysts call one of the most important prerequisites for the success of the Peace Summit.
In fact, this was confirmed in an interview with the leading Italian edition of La Stampa, the head of the domestic Foreign Ministry Dmytro Kuleba. According to him, in anticipation of the exact date of the peaceful forum in Switzerland, bilateral contacts are ongoing, including with China, "which can play a key role in the termination of the war because of its special relations with Russia. " The positive expectations of Mr. Coolebe from the Chinese side, of course, can only be welcomed.
However, if you remember the previous Summit of Peace, which took place last summer in Saudi Arabia, there was no particularly especially noteworthy there and, moreover, did not testify to public support for the Ukrainian formula of peace.
On the contrary of the PRC in Jedda, without any diplomatic camouflage, it made it clear that it would adhere to its peaceful plan, which requires immediate ceasefire without the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, which, we note, directly contradictory to the peaceful formula of Zelensky. So, whether Beijing will change its position by participating in the future Swiss summit is an open question.
And the answer to it, as experts point out, depends on many diplomatic events in the near future. According to the director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies Igor Semivolos, the future summit in Switzerland, dedicated to the "formula of peace" has a significant weight not only for Ukraine and its allies, but also for China.
"As the official Beijing is known to insist on the presence in this event of Russia and accordingly the correction of the formula itself, taking into account the Russian strategic interests. It is possible and disappear from the agenda after the visit of Xi Jinping to France, " - said Mr. Semivolos in a conversation with focus. In his opinion, the Chinese leader has not accidentally chosen Paris because "China believes that Macron is one of the key players in Europe.
" "On the one hand, China is obviously not ready to support Russia completely and one hundred percent and wants to find a modus Vivond, which will provide him with presence in the western markets and, accordingly, lack of sanctions against it. On the other hand, China is interested in not losing Russia, And strategically played. That is why there is a kind of balancing of China.
This balancing of China can last long enough, but the circumstances that are now (in particular, the fact that Europe increases defense and increases the number of ammunition) forces China to respond more promptly, "says Igor Semivolos. According to the expert, the Middle Kingdom has always developed her strategy to break the strategic relations between Europe and the United States, but as of now, this approach ceases to work.
First of all, because Europe demonstrates a completely different, more decisive style of behavior. "And it is obvious that China is all now rethinking and thinking how to act in the future," the expert sums up. The fact that China started a multi -passenger, the director of the Situation Agency Vitaly Bala is convinced. "Xi Jinping is in the style of oriental diplomacy.
On the one hand, he greeted Putin on the so -called victory in the elections, and on the other - he gathers on a visit to France, with Macron now occupies a very rigid antiputine position, acting as a European locomotive At the same time, in April, the German Chancellor Scholtz gathers in April. It is all very interesting even in the time frame-who will be the first to meet the Chinese leader: Europeans or Putin. And this diplomatic-time factor will also affect the position of China.
And if Even before Putin's visit to Beijing, the US Congress will accept additional support for Ukraine, then the China's behavior will also change, "Vitaliy Bala notes in conversation with focus. According to the expert, China, having opened a peculiar umbrella over Russia, will further press either directly on the Russian Federation, "so that it does not do nonsense" or press on Europeans so that they in their turn press on Ukraine in terms of the need for a truce from the Russian Federation.
"In the paradigm of the PRC, everything is now quite lively around" freezing ", ceasefire or signing a truce. At the same time, which is quite clearly shown the extreme meeting of the Ramstein group, the allies do not even discuss these issues, so China will have to lava Maximizing his own benefits, "Vitaly Bala sums up. By the way, if you talk about the benefits of China against the background of a rather active "peaceful" diplomacy, you should pay attention to Bloomberg.
The agency, among other things, states that China has planned to make a record import of Russian black gold, thanks to the large volumes of Sokol oil, from which India was refused by US sanctions. Also, according to Bloomberg, the import of ESPO-other brand of Russian oil, this month will be 882 thousand barrels a day, which is the highest rate since January 2023. In this way, it is obvious that the official Beijing tries to conduct a double game at the same time.