War in 2024: What five scenarios are waiting for Ukraine - the forecast of the analytical center

The most likely scenario of development of the Russian-Ukrainian war is a conflict for exhaustion, which will last at least until 2025, say analysts. The world community should be assumed that Russia will not refuse to destroy Ukraine under any circumstances. There is a scenario for the development of war in which the forces of defense will be released all the territories occupied by the Russians. It is also possible that President Vladimir Putin will get rid of the Russian Federation.

Analysts on the Non-Governmental Organization "Globsec Forum" (Globsec) have developed five possible scenarios of the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2024 and 2025. The conclusions were published in the report posted on the organization. Report called Five Security Scenarios On Russia War in Ukraine for 2024-2025: Implications and Policy Recommendations to Western Partners ("Five Security Scenarios of the Russian War in Ukraine for 2024-2025.

The document consists of 44 pages and contains conclusions created on the basis of a survey of 41 experts from Ukraine and with the help of other special methods. Experts have considered 58 factors that can affect the future course of war. As a result, five scenarios were formed - there are optimistic for Ukraine, and there are tragic or fantastic: they can take place with different probability.

Scenario 1-"The Third World War of Hybrid type: sharp regional conflicts and wars on the planet with a" blurry "war in Ukraine in the Middle East, the Caucasus, Balkans, in the Asian-Pacific, etc. ". The scenario is possible with a probability of 27. 26% and means a total war that will cover different countries of the world. In addition, Russia can provoke an increase in the migration crisis.

An environmental disaster is also possible - for example, the Kremlin will commit a terrorist attack at the Zaporizhzhya NPP. Scenario 2 - "Focus: The War of Russia in Ukraine. The war for exhaustion (after 2025) lasted. " The script is possible with a probability of 31. 02% and means a positional war that will last in 2024 and later. During the position war, Ukraine will be in defense, receive restricted assistance to the West, but will still be able to attack in the east or south.

In doing so, Russia will expect what the elections in the United States will end to understand how to proceed. Scenario 3 - "Focus: War of Russia in Ukraine. Frozen. Political and diplomatic end of the war under the coercion . At the same time, they will consider the division of the country following the example of North and South Korea. Scenario 4 - "Liberation of Ukrainian territories/withdrawal Victory on the battlefield.

Implementation is possible if partners are significantly strengthened by military support. In this case, de -occupation is possible during 2024, or at the beginning of 2025. Scenario 5 - "Military defeat of Russia in Ukraine. De -occupation of all territories. Restoration of control over internationally recognized Ukrainian borders. Reparations from Russia. Accusations and courts over Russian war criminals. Gradual transformation , before the social explosion and change of power.

The authors of the analytical report indicated that it would be offered to partners in the European Union, to know how to act, to help Ukraine we note that on December 28, British Viecadmiral stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin would inspire the victories he expects to win in Mariinka and Avdiivka.