Currency swing during the war: Where is the cash course moving
This is stated in the new article of the focus "The hardest year. As prices, course, banks in Ukraine have changed six months after the invasion of the Russian Federation". Meanwhile, on the cash market on August 25, the banks of the dollar sales-within 39. 9-41. 2 UAH/USD. And in the interbank market, for six months in a row, the demand for foreign currency over its supply has been ongoing.
"The factors on the interbank remain unchanged - the imbalance between supply and demand, which, for its part, is a consequence of the negative balance of trade. who went abroad, they live in whole or in part at the expense of hryvnia savings. The conversion of these funds into the currency occurs precisely through the Ministry of Internal Affairs, " - explained Focus Anna Zolotko, director of the UNEC Bank Treasury Operations Department.
According to Sergey Kucherryvyk, Director of the Liquidity Control and Securities Control Department, the trade on the interbank interbank remained within the limits of the resolution No. 188 of the NBU regulated.
"In fact, interbank agreements are held in the corridor 36,5686 - 36,9343 (in most days closer to the upper limit), which corresponds to the formula" NBU rate +1%", ie the regulator buys currency from banks at the official rate of 36,5686 and sells foreign currency banks at the rate of 36. 9343 (NBU rate +1%). Since the beginning of August, the NBU remains the main player in the market where it sells currency more often to market participants.
According to the official statistics given by the National Bank, in the first 2 weeks he bought from banks $ 101 million, sold to banks - $ 1 012 million, " - said Sergei Kucherryvy. And according to the chief dealer of the Treasury Department and Financial Institutes of the OTP Bank Anton Kurinny, the key demand for currency forms imports of weapons and military equipment, as well as imports of medical goods.
And yet, in August, there was some stabilization in August-the cash dollar sales rate for a long time has been in the corridor of 39-41 UAH/USD. The banks are convinced that the course is affected by the cash currency deficit in the country. This means that the chance that the cash rate in the country will approach the official 36. 6 UAH/USD, unfortunately, very little.
"The main factor is the insufficient amount of cache, there is still a shortage of cash, so it is not possible to stabilize it below 40 UAH/USD. Plus business is a little scared One of the factors is the demand from the volunteers who are calculated by currency for many necessary things for the military. We are waiting for a large offer of cache dollar from banks and their branches, since the NBU has expanded a little opportunity to sell currency through cash desks, " - said Anton Kurinny.
Sergiy Kucherryvyov says that in the cash market, part of the demand for foreign currency has "crossed" for the purchase of currency with further placement on deposits at banks at a more attractive exchange rate, but this is not enough to stabilize the cash market. "Cash exchange rate in the range of 39-41 UAH/USD for almost two weeks is definitely a sign of stabilization of the situation in the cash segment.
The stabilizing impact on the cash market has a scheme for the purchase of foreign currency for non-cash hryvnia with the obligation to place funds on a three-month deposit Anna Zolotko believes. We will remind, in July the NBU allowed banks non -cash sale of currency, but only for the amount of 50 thousand UAH, provided that the deposit is placed, and the deposit period - at least three months.