Will the war end by 2025? Why expert attempts to look into the future doomed to failure
What will be the Maidan, which will be unsuccessfully accelerated. I will know about snipers and Heavenly Hundred. About the escape of the expansion and annexation of Crimea. About the invasion of the Donbas and the capture of Slavic. About Donetsk, Lugansk and Malaysian Boeing. But what will I do with all this knowledge in September 2013? Who will believe me? In the phrase "And the President of Georgia will be the governor of the Odessa region" My friends will call an ambulance.
The only thing I can do in September 2013 is to buy dollars eight. I can tell me that the Maidan and the invasion were too deep watershed. That they cut the country's life on and after. That the war always turns the usual life - and so we are doomed not to understand the post -war us. But the fact that reality turned our ideas about ourselves not only in 2014. Imagine that we have been in the spring of 2019 in the spring of 2016.
And we say to the environment that Nadiya Savchenko is not really a hero and, let's say, overestimates. If you manage to survive after this revelation, then try to talk about the results of the next presidential election. When you finally find a panel from the TV and show everyone the future president, your friends will call you an ambulance again. Because in the spring of 2016, even Vladimir Zelensky himself thought about the presidential ambitions of Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
However, you can not walk far. Imagine that from August 2023 you will find yourself in August 2021. And you propose to guess to your environment - whom the event recognizes the symbol and face of the free world in two years. "A hint is the president. The number two hint is not the US President. " And you will be left alone again - because only one who is immersed in the context of the last one and a half years will be able to believe in the image metamorphoses of the Ukrainian president.
We are often looking for in our past the crossroads that separates us recent present from us. The watershed, after which the future ceased to surprise us. The point of the phase transition, after which the event began to look logical and natural. But the thing is that there is no such point. Our heroes and anti -heroes change places. Our reality denies our forecasts yesterday. We have nothing to travel in the past - because no one will believe us there. It is possible that even now we are not afraid.
That news from 2025 will seem to us a madman of the crazy. Most likely, having heard what awaits us, we will begin to doubt the prudence of the interlocutor. We build forecasts about the future, based on the fact that the reality moves the rails. And she does not ride rails. Therefore, any attempts to talk about detailed long-term plans today look naive. We often look at the reality that surrounds us, and we believe that this is the final aggregate state of our country.
And then comes the future and mixes the cards. For example, there is no point in talking about future elections today. And it's not even that they are possible only after the war, but we do not know when it is over. The fact is that war is anesthesia to society. It is she who gives us the unanimity we see in the polls. As soon as the war is over, we will again plunge into the usual polyphony and disputes.
The post -war society will be as unlike the society of wartime as current Ukraine is unlike the pre -war. It is difficult for us to predict the lines of future split. Because they will depend on the scenario of the end of our war. More precisely, whether society will perceive the end of war as a victory or as a defeat. In the first case, collective Euro -optimism awaits us - as a manifestation of solidarity with the allies that helped us to win.
In the second scenario, we will become much more similar to Hungary, and the arguments of Eurosceptics will begin to be treated to the treason, which did not allow us to achieve the desired result. We do not know what our streets will look after the war. How many people will be different from us, skin color and religious beliefs. Our depopulation will require complex decisions-and any desire to lock the border for migrants will be accompanied by a rapid increase in prices due to labor shortages.
We will become much less homogeneous than they were 2021-and photos from the future of us will also be amazed. In March 2022, we were ready to consider the victory in the war to the borders on February 23. Today, they are not ready to agree to less than the borders of the 91st year. During the fighting for Bakhmut, we considered Wagner the most capable part of the occupying army. And in June, the 23rd watched how these mercenaries knock down Russian helicopters and go to Moscow.
The victory of the right populists in Italy in October 22 was seen as a triumph of Putin's supporters. And then we found that Rome turned into one of the main military assistance lawyers to Ukraine. In our history textbooks, we will, of course, bind points A to points with the help of straight lines. We align the trajectories, invent explanations, prepare logical formulas. A pillar is a well -edited spruce, so everyone will receive consistent biographies and predictable motivations.