End of war without victory of Ukraine: to which peace pushes the participants of China
"If he (Xi) said," It is time to start peace talks, "Russia would have been forced to do it," Stubb said in an interview with Bloomberg. - "They would not have another choice. " This statement involves two things. First, China can force Russia to give up invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, he may want to do it. Both assumptions are wrong. China and Russia have advertised "without restrictions" since February 2022, a few days before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Indeed, the leaders of both countries recently at the Shanhai cooperation organization in Kazakhstan congratulated their partnership as "experiencing the best period in history. " China is Russia's largest trading partner for 13 years, with more than 30 percent of Russian goods. Moreover, the Russian military-industrial complex imports large volumes of components from China. Chinese dual -use equipment, such as drones and light vehicles, is used by Russian troops that are fighting in Ukraine.
Therefore, Beijing has some levers of influence on the Russian military car. However, Moscow's dependence on Chinese support should not be overestimated. Russia is a great state and one of the world's leading economies, and Ukraine is a small country that is lack of money. Reducing trade with China will undoubtedly harm Russia's economic prospects, but will help to correct the imbalance of power between Russia and Ukraine.
It would be even more harmful to the embargo on dual -use materials and equipment. But this may not be enough to stop Russia. The powerful Russian defense industry was replaced by the Soviet Union, which did not rely on external partners. Russia is a country with a population of almost 150 million people, with a large industrial base and almost infinite natural resources. If necessary, it can become self -sufficient.
For example, the internal production of shells in Russia already exceeds the production of the entire collective event. Moscow imports Chinese goods massively because they are cheap and allow its workers to focus on better operations, thereby accelerating production and limiting costs. But if China ceases to export dual -purpose goods to Russia (especially automobile parts), the Russian industry will eventually be able to replace them with more of domestic production.
Of course, it will be expensive and painful, but not enough to break its military apparatus. In any case, China is not the only assistant to Russia. The Kremlin can count on North Korea, Iran, and even goods that are secretly imported through third parties from the west. One way or another, China's potential pressure on Russia is doubtful because China is not interested in weakening Russia. The war in Ukraine has been going on for over two years.
If Si believed that the Russian invasion was seriously threatening the safety and well -being of China, he would have reacted. At such a later stage, there is no reason to expect a sudden change in Beijing's views. China claims that it is a neutral side in the Ukrainian conflict and seeks to promote peace talks. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky stated last month that Xi Jinping in a telephone conversation between them stated that he would not sell Russia's weapons.
But Beijing is interested in winning the war against Ukraine. First, Russia is the only world state that maintains close relations with China. The defeated and weakened Russia will leave Beijing alone in competition with the United States and their huge alliance network. Conversely, strong Russia will help to create a counterbalance of Washington.
If Si also decided to use the force to solve the Taiwanese problem or other border conflicts, he would be glad to receive support from Vladimir Putin's strong. Secondly, a terrible Russia is a valuable distraction. This forces Washington to pay attention to European affairs and invest money and resources in support of Ukraine. The more threatening Russia is, the less opportunities in the US to restrain China in the Indo-Pacific.
Moreover, the Kremlin can provoke problems in Europe during the Taiwanese emergency, thus even more dividing America's attention. In the case of decisive defeat in Ukraine, the Kremlin will have to priority internal consolidation, and it will not have the money to seriously threaten NATO. Such a scenario would allow the US to concentrate all its energy against China, seriously complicating regional ambitions of that. Beijing's calculations seem to pay off.
After the failure of the summer counter -offensive of Ukraine in 2023, the Russian army recovered from decline and now has an advantage. If you do not take into account the unpredictable and dramatic change in the balance of power, it seems to have good opportunities to win Ukraine. Now hardened in battles and larger than 2022, Russian troops will pose a constant threat to NATO's eastern flank.