The Russian Federation will try to fully capture four regions of Ukraine - Lithuanian intelligence
On March 7, Lithuanian intelligence rated national security threats for 2024. It is noted that the Russian Federation has resources in the personnel, material base and the necessary finances - this makes it possible to support the military campaign in Ukraine in the near future. According to intelligence, despite severe losses, Russia resumed and increased the number of personnel that was stationed in Ukraine in 2023.
Priority is still given to the number of living power and technology, not the quality of the Armed Forces. It is also reported that the Russian MICC has become the driving force of the Russian economy, albeit at the expense of other sectors. In 2023, the Russian Federation allocated at least $ 119 billion for military expenditures.
According to Lithuanian intelligence, the state of the Russian economy was now better than expected - thanks to high oil prices and the ability to compensate for losses from Western sanctions. Short -term factors have become the driving force of economic growth of the Russian Federation, but structural problems are likely to only increase in the long run. After the presidential election, Vladimir Putin is more likely to go to unpopular decisions (mobilization).
The Kremlin is unlikely to give up their long -term goals for the capture of Ukraine, even if it is not possible to achieve military means. Russia does not demonstrate the intention of the war against Ukraine and is unlikely to give up operational purposes in the long run, even if it is defeated. Regardless of the war, Russia will continue to go to its goal: destruction of Ukrainian statehood, sovereignty, coercion to neutral status, destruction of military potential.
In the short term, the Russian Federation will try to fully control Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions. The Kremlin's goals have not changed, although Russian information operations are aimed at convincing the Western audience that the Kremlin is pursuing only limited goals in Ukraine - and to support negotiations in the West. According to Lithuanian intelligence, Russia is preparing for confrontation with NATO in the long run and at the same time wages a war in Ukraine.
Significant resources for the war are allocated, and funds are stored to prepare for a conflict with NATO in the Baltic Sea region. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation has to rely increasingly on air and naval opportunities in operations on the Eastern Flanging of NATO. In 2023, the Russian Federation placed ships with Caliber missiles in Ladoga Lake near St. Petersburg, probably, in response to Finland's accession to the Alliance.
Increased the number of flights of heavy TU-22m3 bombers over the Baltic. Russian military analysts openly discuss how Russia can start a war against NATO in the near future, it is noted that the termination of hostilities in Ukraine will not stop the confrontation between the West and the Russian Federation. It should be reminded that in March 2023 Lithuanian intelligence noted that Russia will be able to wage war in Ukraine for two more years.