The end of Russian oil. Whether Trump's decision is affected by Russian income
After his inauguration, US President Donald Trump has announced a large -scale program aimed at the abolition of the ban on export of liquefied gas, drilling in coastal waters, in particular on Alaska, as well as the acceleration of the federal leasing program for mining. According to Reuters, the state of emergency in the energy sphere should accelerate the issuance of permits for oil, gas and energy projects. Focus asked experts what it would mean to the world and Ukraine in particular.
"America will become a production nation again, and we will have what no other production nation will have: the largest amount of oil and gas from all countries on Earth," Trump said during an inaugural speech. This plan of Trump indicates a sharp turn in Washington's energy policy. Former US President Joe Biden, on the contrary, tried to encourage fossil fuels in the world's largest economy for four years.
Trump's plan testifies to the sharp turn in Washington's energy policy "to the right, it is still unknown whether such large -scale Trump designs will affect the US production, which has already reached a record level. The drilling drills are currently" chasing "at high prices after its invasion of Russia 2022, " - said in Reuters.
Later, Trump signed decrees on the announcement of an emergency situation in the energy sphere and on the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, an international agreement on combating global warming. He also asserted the development of oil and gas in Alaska and said that he was expecting a decrease in consumer prices for energy and improving the US National Security by expanding internal supplies, as well as strengthening the allies.
"We will reduce prices, again fill our strategic stocks to the top and export American energy around the world," Trump said. Meanwhile, Dmitry Churin, Director of the Analytical Department of Eavex Capital Investment Company, said in conversation with focus that innovations in the United States had already influenced the price of Russian oil, which is cheaper today by 3. 5%. The price of Brent oil in the international market today, January 21, is reduced by 1. 3%.
"Trump's efforts to reduce global oil prices should help him curb consumer inflation in the United States and thus please the electorate," Dmitry Churin explains. "We will be drunk, tiny, drill," Trump said. In his inaugural speech, he also stressed that the United States will begin a new era of oil and gas intelligence. "For his (Donalda Trump, focus) ideas need a comfortable price for start. $ 80 per barrel or close to that is quite suitable.
Not me, but the previous president, " - commented the focus of the CEO and Prime Group founder Dmitry Leushkin. Trump's idea and the prospect of his program for the world, as well as its consequences for the shadow fleet of Russia, in his opinion, should not be relaxed, because the price of fuel in the medium term does not plan to fall in the medium term, but on the contrary, the next weeks or two will increase a little. .
The idea of Trump and the prospect of his program for the world, as well as its consequences for the shadow fleet of Russia, was also explained by a financial analyst, a member of the Ukrainian Society of Financial Analysts Andriy Shevchyshyn. "It is about the need to first fill the state oil reserve, which was spent to stabilize prices, as well as an increase in exports to world markets. In the future it is 3 million barrels a day.
For comparison it is the volume that is exported by sea now. That is, they are completely They can block the entire shadow fleet, the whole shadow sales and in general the entire tanker volume that the Russian Federation now offers, "Shevchyshyn said. He also confirmed Dmitry Churin's words about the oil market reaction, which indicates a decrease in prices. However, the factor that influenced this was called not only Donald Trump's statements, but also stabilization in the Middle East.
"If we talk about the balance of the market, such decisions of Trump will restrain global oil prices, and the states will capture their fate of the market, displacing other countries. At the same time, they will negotiate to satisfy the curiosity of their partners. The US is not included in the OPEC (organization of oil exporting countries - Ed. ), So all freezing with this organization of growth of production do not affect them.
In such a policy, the United States can even withdraw from the Free Trade Area Agreement, the expert. Therefore, these factors in the future can suppress the global economy, in particular influence the economy of China and the EU. The US is not in OPEC, so all freezing with this organization of growth of production do not affect them. They will pursue their policy solely "under such conditions it will not take so much petroleum products and gas.
Therefore, we can feel an additional trend to adjust prices due to insufficient demand," the analyst summarized. The fall in oil prices will significantly affect the income of the Russian Federation from the sale of raw materials. As reported by Reuters, in 2023 the lower prices for oil and the fall of gas exports reduced the income of the Russian Federation from the sale of raw materials by 24%.
But according to the results of 2024, the revenues to the federal budget of Russia from the sale of oil and gas in 2024 increased by more than 26% to 11. 13 trillion rubles ($ 108. 22 billion). If Donald Trump's plan is working, new oil prices should reduce the flow of currency into the budget of the Russian Federation. In addition, Donald Trump and his team can strengthen sanctions against the Russian Federation if it is clear that Putin will not go to Trump's "peace agreement".