Heaven on earth: how China can force Putin to end the war in Ukraine
This is his first visit to the region since returning to the White House in January of this year. The key point of the trip is expected to be a meeting on Thursday, October 30, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, during which the owner of the Oval Office plans to discuss the Russian-Ukrainian war in detail. "I would really like China to help us with Russia. We have imposed very serious sanctions against Russia. I think these sanctions, you know, they are very painful. They are very strong.
But I would like China to help us. I have a good relationship, as you know, with President Xi. . . One of the issues we will talk about is Russia and Ukraine. We will definitely talk about it. He (Xi (Jinping - Focus) would also like it to end," the American leader emphasized. In addition, Donald Trump announced that in the conversation with the leader of the People's Republic of China, he will also talk about the fact that he should stop buying Russian oil products in order to "not finance the war.
" "Definitely, I will talk to him about how we can end the war between Russia and Ukraine: whether it is through oil, or through energy, or through something else. And I think he will be very receptive. . . " - summed up the head of the White House.
On the eve of Trump's meeting with the Chinese leader, in the light of his latest decisions regarding Russia, one should not be too fascinated so as not to be disappointed later, Oleksandr Krayev, an expert of the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism", is convinced.
In particular, in a conversation with Focus, the expert notes the following: "On the one hand, yes, we see Trump, who is ready to do more and put pressure on the Russian Federation with sanctions, and those because of which the Russians quickly send Dmitriev to Washington to "de-escalate" the situation. That is, finally there really is a tangible pressure.
But on the other hand, it is clear that this is not the only topic that will be discussed by the American and Chinese leaders - their agenda is very, very big. In contrast to the Russian direction of American diplomacy, the US held meetings with the Chinese every one and a half to two weeks at the level of the Ministries of Finance, Foreign Trade, Foreign Affairs, etc.
Even at the level of the Ministries of Internal Affairs and Intelligence, the Americans and the Chinese had meetings all the time. That is, their topics for discussion are a cart and a small cart.
" Expressing his belief that, despite the rather voluminous negotiating "basket", Trump will still raise the topic of the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine in a conversation with his Chinese colleague, the expert added: "But the question is what price China will ask for its activation, since Beijing is currently in such a position that even without doing anything, it can make money from it.
Simply put, being conditionally neutral, not significantly helping either the West, us, or the Russians, China can still ask for something for it. And, in my opinion, the key result of the meeting between Trump and Xi will be that we will at least find out the price that China will set for its own neutrality - not helping the Russian Federation in technologies and not buying its oil products.
" Meanwhile, Oleksandr Krayev suggests, "Chinese prices" will not be announced right away, "because this is how Chinese diplomacy works, which is quite secretive. " "But no matter what, at the backstage level the dots will still be placed over the "I": Trump will find out what to do with China, and the PRC will play more concretely by announcing its price list. It should be understood that it is important for China that Russia does not lose completely.
And here in this game of words "not lost completely", I think the main thing is hidden. That is, it will look normal for China a "freeze" along the contact line in case Putin can present himself as the winner in any format. At the same time, we must understand that it is bad for the PRC if Russia wins completely, because in this case the Russian Federation is a priori a competitor and a threat that can take away part of the leadership from China.
That is precisely why there will be a neutral scenario for the PRC, no matter how strange it sounds a plus and a positive," the expert states. According to the analyst, the next stage of the US trade with China will be to force Russia at the hands of the People's Republic of China to go to peace talks. "Instead, now, rather, it is about how to put pressure on Beijing so that it stops helping Russia.
The next question is how to negotiate with China so that it starts putting pressure on the Russian Federation. And here it is worth understanding that Trump does not have to negotiate with China, because he has enough elements of pressure. For example, Trump can introduce 500% tariffs on the PRC and say: "Now do what is necessary so that these interest rates have not become even higher.
" This is a game that can be played from both sides - that is, the fact that China will state its price does not mean that the USA will immediately pay it," argues Oleksandr Kraev. At the same time, political scientist Dmytro Levus states in a conversation with Focus: "In my opinion, China will not give a concrete answer to Donald Trump regarding the issue of settling the Russian-Ukrainian war.
It should be taken into account that this problem is not the only one and is not key for China in the light of the big trade war between the United States and the People's Republic of China. " According to the expert, after the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, Beijing will not give up the support of the Russian Federation, which the PRC declaratively denies and disguises, but de facto provides all the time.
Official Beijing, Dmytro Levus emphasizes, will not put pressure on the Russian Federation, although "perhaps there will be restrictions on trade with Russia. " Meanwhile, the political scientist emphasizes, China currently realizes that it is unable to put enough pressure on Moscow to stop the war against Ukraine.
Moreover, according to Dmytro Levusy, the Celestial Empire is completely satisfied with the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war: "China perceives this war as a war against the West, and since the relations between the PRC and the USA are much broader, it is there that Beijing will use the field for concessions and maneuvers.
" Answering a clarifying question about China's specific benefits from the continuation of the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine, the expert noted that in the event of a continuation of the military confrontation between Kyiv and Moscow, the reserves and resources of the United States and Europe will continue to be diverted to help Ukraine, which plays in China's favor.
However, the main thing, the political scientist emphasizes, is that the defeat of Russia is unacceptable for China from a mental point of view, since Beijing a priori tries this fiasco on its state body in a strategic sense.