I - you. Trump wants to bargain with Russia in Ukraine and China, will Putin want?
According to Trump's political scientist, Trump's main goal is to weaken China and detach Russia, which is becoming more dependent on China, selling their energy discounts, opening its market for Chinese goods, thereby increasing China economically and providing additional resources. "Therefore, the main goal for Trump is to deprive China of cheap resources. Accordingly, unfortunately for us, he is ready to make some compromises with Putin at the expense of Ukraine.
Here is the key problem that he does not see the threat in Russia for the USA and not He sees her a competitor for the fight for global leadership on the world stage, ”Yali Focus said. The political scientist noted that the probable "peace plan" of Trump, which is the pressure on Ukraine, so that it gives way to part of the territory of the Russian Federation, indulge in force violation of internationally recognized borders.
However, the problem is, because Trump himself does not see for the expedient to retain the world order that was formed after the end of World War II and in which the United States play a key role and act as a guarantor of security for their allies. "It is this that his statements and threats to European leaders to get out of NATO to reduce the financial burden for the US budget. In general, he is a supporter In front of his allies.
The political scientist noted that the victory of Ukraine is important for the United States to preserve the world in which the United States play a key role in the geopolitical arena, in the financial sphere and in other areas of public relations.
"So, of course, if Ukraine loses a huge blow to the US image as a guarantor of international security and it can provoke other conflicts, first of all, it is about Taiwan, because China is carefully watching the development of the Russian-Ukrainian war and in other regions where there are common territories ", - Yali said. According to him, it can provoke redistribution of spheres of influence and borders.
According to Yali, the benefit of losing in the war of Ukraine may be that at our expense Russia can make significant compromises, in particular in the energy sector, to allow US companies to produce gas and oil together with Russian companies in the Arctic, as it has already been planned Until 2014, contracts were signed. For example, Arctic LNG 2 (Arctic LNG 2) is a project of the Russian company "Novatek" on production and liquefies of natural gas on the Hidan Peninsula.
However, on November 2, 2023, the Arctic LNG 2 project was included in the list of US sanctions aimed at restrictions on the production and export of Russian energy resources. Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, in turn, noted that information about the content of the so -called Trump peace plan, citing sources, published the Washington Post, which is close to the US Democratic Party.
Therefore, he said, it is not necessary to perceive the truth of the statement of someone from another political camp. "Two specific examples. Someone reports Trump's peaceful plan, people from the closest TRAM? No. No message, no statement from Trump, people close to Trump about the content of this plan at all. Informs WP edition that is close to the US Democratic Party . Certainly, in this case, the goal is Trump discredit, "Fesenko said.
The political scientist noted that in the United States there is a election struggle, so it is impossible to trust a quotation from a source located in another political camp. In addition, the political scientist believes that Trump's statements should be taken with a major amendment, including election time. "Just for comparison, they write about Crimea, that Trump is ready to give the occupied territories of Russia.
In 2016, during the election, Trump also spoke about Russian Crimea, now he does not say, and then said that Russians live there, etc. . According to him, what can say in private conversations Trump now and what he will do as a president - these can be two different things. Fesenko noted that there are two different camps around Trump, and no one can now say what Trump's policy will be.
"The other thing is that one of the camps around Trump, the most radical Trumpists, including in Congress, are people with isolationist views. They are not interested not only in Ukraine but Europe is not interested in them. They are ready to get out of NATO, or to treat the most formally as possible US memberships in NATO, etc. This is true, "Fesenko said.
According to him, another camp of representatives, many in the Senate, many in the US Congress, and in general people who were in Trump team, including the former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, people who call Ronald Reagan's followers. That is, supporters of a rigid line against Russia. The political scientist noted that Trump is suitable for many issues as a businessman. For example, in February 2024, the former US president proposed to assist Ukraine on credit.
"This is a purely business approach. This approach will be a good way if Trump becomes president. Because it matches his kind, outlook," Fesenko said. The political scientist believes that Trump just will not make Putin's concessions. "Trump will demand from Putin's concessions on his part, and most likely it will relate to China. I doubt Putin to meet Trump.
When Trump was president, he repeatedly said that he wanted to negotiate with Putin that he He wants to find a common language with Putin, to remove all the contradictions and problems Why? Yes, Trump was ready to make some Putin's concessions, but he also demanded a concern from Putin. "There were no concessions on Putin in the matter of Syria, in the question of the restriction on the restriction of strategic offensive weapons - no concessions by Putin.
Therefore, I would not hurry with such simplified and frivolous forecasts about what Trump's policies, in particular, in Ukraine. No one can say this right now, "Fesenko said. The political scientist believes that it will be possible to evaluate the situation when it is known who will be a secretary of Trump, a national security assistant when attempts will be negotiated. However, Fesenko does not reject the possibility of pressure on Ukraine to promote a peace agreement.
"Trump is not very fond of war, but it is not just that. It should be an agreement, equipment, you are me - I am. The maximum that is possible, in my opinion - an agreement on ceasefire. This option is possible, I do not exclude it. And we can not press on us. Assumption, "Fesenko said. However, it is worth noting that in Ukraine against the freezing of the conflict.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that in the case of freezing of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia will be given the opportunity to adapt to the current situation and in 2028 the Kremlin will be able to restore its military potential, which was undermined by the actions of the defense forces. The political scientist noted that if Trump sees that Putin is stubborn and demanding peace only on his own conditions, Trump will not go.
"Because it will be humiliation and everyone will say that Trump lost. Where then the grandeur of America says about Trump? Many people from his surroundings believe that the main opponent of the US is not Putin but China. But if Trump goes to Putin's concessions, then China will also consider the United States to be weak at Trump, "Fesenko said.