Putin realizes that he loses, so he announced the mobilization. But it's bad news for Ukraine

Vladimir Putin delayed the announcement of mobilization in Russia. He probably feared riots in the squares. But against the background of Ukraine's victories, the dictator fell into despair Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, in his speech on September 21, announced the citizens of the Russian Federation of "partial" mobilization in Russia. Is it important that the occupying country has declared mobilization? Yes, important. How many memes do not produce, we should not forget that these are problems.

It is important not to be afraid of the enemy, but always a bad idea is to throw his hats. It is both a manifestation of "panic" and the statement of the fact that Putin loses the war and the problem for Ukraine. Yes, everything at the same time. Because that there was no, we knew that Putin would lose the war. And now he loses it, but also suits hysterics.

It's like a drunken big grandfather who will definitely end the evening in a bucizar, but before that can break a lot and break the nose for those who will knit it. So it's unpleasant. It's bad news. Whatever cool. And paradoxically, it is bad and unhappy news. Because it is not catastrophic. Unpleasant. Bad. But it is not exactly accompanied by such feelings that were in late February 2022. Yes, many military experts say that Russia is already a lack of weapons.

There will be difficulties in training newly mobilized citizens. Will it increase the number of people running away from Russia? But at the same time, 70% of Russians have no foreign passport, and these Russians will not escape anywhere, and it is on them that Putin counts. Is it not popular in Russia? Yes, but we do not expect that it will immediately lead to a revolution. Yes, in the Russian army the problem with corruption, and they are logistics.

But this only reduces the effectiveness of any steps, but does not cancel them. One way or another, it will increase the capabilities of the Russians at the front after a certain time. Not soon, but will increase. We do not know how much it will increase. It will not be tomorrow. It will be in a few months. But there will be. Why did it happen? Putin did not want to mobilize until the last and delayed this moment as he could.

And now - in the Avral mode of "referendums" in Russia occupied by Ukrainian territories in three days (sorry that they did not stated that they had passed last weekend in secrecy), mobilization and that's all this. What happened? Putin has received negative messages from China and India in recent days. And in general, every Asian dictator who has been bowing before the Russian counterpart, now uses the moment to humiliate Putin and hint that it is time to tie it.

Turkish President Recep Erdogan threw Putin out of the Caucasus. Even Kazakhstan and Armenia (as well as Turkey and Vietnam) refused to accept Russian Payment Cards "Mir". How does Putin answer this? Again, with only one known way to him - raising the ponds. And quite emotional lift. Because it was all from his knees and very quickly, as if he had been staggered at the Samchand (SCOS) Summaya Summit in Samarkand. Russia always does so. Putin always does so, because this is always what bandits do.

The only known method is raising ponds. And we saw the mobilization. And new nuclear blackmail. Who already scares. Because Putin takes emotional steps against the background of defeat, and therefore does not look scary, but a pathetic smile. What's next? Next - it is unknown, by the way. Because again, we do not know whether Putin wants to unpack this flywheel in full, whether to simulate certain processes, to satisfy both the internal "Party of War" and to scare the West and Ukraine. Let's see.

One way or another, mobilization will definitely not be popular in Russia. It is no longer. Putin announced only "partial" mobilization. Or because it leaves the opportunity to raise the rates in the future. Or because he wants less disturbance and panic in Russian society. Or because he wants to simulate mobilization. On the example of Ukraine we see that mobilization goes parts, in steps, stages. And it is in no way called partial.

Therefore, like many in Russia, this mobilization can be fake, PR mobilization. Which is needed to make Putin show power and satisfy the "Party of War", for which he began to look weak. Putin cannot afford to seem weak. Because they will eat immediately. And in Samarkand he looked weak. And he needed something to compensate for. Why can it be just mobilization half a cone? Because Putin not just tightened and postponed the mobilization. He knows the Russian people much better than us.

And understands that true mobilization will be unpopular. At the same time, his economic block explained to him what true mobilization threatens to the economy. Moreover, in the modern world it is impossible to rearrange the country "on military rails", it does not work so. At that time, only North Korea, which has little because of the lack of technology. And the example of the Soviet Union is not relevant, especially now Landliz is not working on Putin.

Can he hide more large -scale mobilization? Maybe. Theoretically. Because for him the main thing is to preserve power. And he, if he feels a threat to himself, can put on the Kon and the Russian economy. We do not know which versions are true. In some case, the damage will be greater, in some - less. Long -term - it accelerates destructive processes in Russia itself. Medium -term - creates problems for Ukraine. In the short term, it does not matter at all.