Putin goes Va-Bank. Why the Russian Federation increases the group to 690 thousand
After all, the increase in the number of the Russian strategic group that operates on the territory of Ukraine will not bring anything good to us, by default. Especially in the context of the prospects of continuing the enemy of active (in the sense of offensive) actions (operations) in certain operating areas. But in fact, the real, not the seeming situation with this grouping of the enemy depends not only on its number, but on a number of factors. The main one is the methodology of its use.
In the previous two parts, I expressed my own point of view on the two main points related to this hypothetical increase in the number of enemy grouping: or as an alternative cause Parish "another attempt by Ukraine to change its strategy for warfare from defensive to the offensive. And so, to prove its military-political leadership (well, of course, its partner states) of all "futility" attempts "to change" something in the current military-political (strategic) situation in the war.
That is, the inability to "turn" or "something to repel". And this, according to the Kremlin, obviously should objectively encourage Ukraine and its allies to "agree" to all the conquest of "the Kremlin. For me, the first variant of "primary purpose" voiced by the General Syrian planned increase in the number of Russian troops in Ukraine looks more likely than the second.
Just because the "ideology" of the theory and practice of the Soviet-Russian "school" of martial arts goes away the search and use of the most active and effective ways and methods of "rebellious enemy's" rebellious rage.
" The transition from the position "Tyagna-Tolkay" in a tactical zone with a more or less constant line of the front, with the hope that the enemy (Armed Forces and in general Ukraine) somehow and once "fell", to the series of "deep breakthroughs and towns", in this The sense is the most appropriate strategy.
At least because the Kremlin is simply "for itself" today can not guarantee with one hundred percent certainty that Ukraine can stop "affected bourgeois" (which, incidentally, are dominated by all resource, economic and technological capacity of the Kremlin. to wage a long war, even in addition to the "Tastic participation" China).
At the same time, trying to determine the nature of the impact of this increase in the number of Russian troops deployed in Ukraine, on the general (military-political \ strategic) situation in the war, it is worth not only the essential (military) sphere, but a number of others, one or another related to the Kremlin's ability to lead it at all, or "model" its strategy in it. For example, a financial, military-economic component or socio-political, technological, etc.
In fact, the military sphere. Such an increase in the number of strategic grouping of Russian troops in Ukraine, which was voiced by General Sirsky, will obviously contribute to the acquisition of his command of a whole list of opportunities and capabilities.
I will not list them now, but the name is two, as for me, key, in the light of the above purpose of this extension and the general course of war, namely: however, all this "beauty" makes sense only when the Russian command is really going to change the basic Forms and methods of application of their troops in the war with Ukraine - from the gradual "biting" of Ukrainian defense in style "from landing to landing" on "streamlining and straightening strokes in the deep defense of the enemy", well, or when the real need to "cement" will be re -founded " Own defense with additional reserves in some operating direction, where, in his opinion, "the Armed Forces will try again.
" In all other cases, this extension will be devoid of sense. For an increase in "living" (to a certain point) force that is involved only in order to be able to continue to storm the "Forester's" or "half a landing during the time" will lead solely to the fact that these "hypothetical" 150-160 thousand "Those" just like their predecessors.
There is no difference to "change the overall situation in the war" how many specifically Russian servicemen were killed, for example, in the battles for Vovchansk - three, five, ten thousand, only the relationship between these losses and "quality" (level, volume) plays a role. the result.
If you put (either in the ground or on a coak in a hospital) in frontal attacks in order to capture a third of the border town, approximately a full -blooded division, then if you do not change the approach to this kind of actions, but only increase the number of assaults Group and mouth, then, obviously, you will achieve (if you achieve) at least less loss.
Increasing the number of personnel of the Russian strategic grouping of troops, deployed in Ukraine, is certainly on the overall course of the war for us will affect you "sharply negative". After all, it will significantly expand the capabilities and capabilities of the Russian command of the appropriate level to plan, organize and carry out certain actions (especially offensive). However, the impact of this increase on the general situation in the war is not limited to the military sphere.
A number of "other factors related" is important to it. Starting with financial (this additional porn should be dressed, feed, eaten, finally-weapons and equip something, it is money, funds and funds again), ending with socio-political. As of the middle of February this year, according to the "Left Bank", the Russian Federation has already spent at least 1.
3 trillion of American dollars with Ukraine (of which, at least 211 billion - only for the deployment and maintenance in the occupied territories of their strategic group troops, when it did not clearly reach up to 500 thousand "goals", now it is more, and in the yard is far from fierce). Adding another 150-160 thousand "carcasses" means adding costs, and significant.
At the same time, inflation continues to grow in the Russian Federation, industrial production, despite the simply "gunshot rolling" from the Russian budget into military production, continues "Zamorebatza" (the growth rate that "gave" there "there They are still growing, but less and less). With the shortage of the "swampy" budget, something is also so bad, and in general, taxes on "swamps" are increasing dramatically.
And there is a socio-political factor (these additional "Vityauzi" to fight "Nativ-binderof hydra" somewhere and somewhere to catch, that is, to mobilize, and this is unlikely to cause particularly positive feelings and emotions in Russian society). Well, etc. Well, in the end - a brief assessment of all this extension in the style "No matter what . . . ". We are dealing with the "last" attempt of the Kremlin to change the "paradigm of war" in a strategic sense.
That is, to achieve the true purpose of the war is to eliminate Ukraine as a state. The chosen method is stretched over time. Initially, the military is to force to agree to the end of the war on their terms (in fact, this extension is needed), after which in Ukraine (or, better to say, that it will remain from it), obviously, will begin, according to the Kremlin, the Kremlin, the mind of the Kremlin.
"Unitty social-political processes of disintegrating nature" on its system of public administration and the entire state system (which is likely). At the end of the Kremlin, only "get". Therefore, we need to prepare for the very dynamic-rooted nearby 5-6 months. The Kremlin, in fact, goes by Va-Bank. Its closest and now the main task is to force Ukraine to agree on their results of the war. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.