Other

Attack on Afghanistan, Czech Republic and Ukraine: As the USSR and Russia 70 years make mistakes that unite the event

The veteran of American diplomacy William Courtney in the Rand column recalls how the USSR/Russia has spoiled for itself throughout its history. It does not exclude that the current mistake with invasion of Ukraine will be a fatal challenge for Moscow, Russia often shoots its leg. It happened again with the murder of Alexei Navalny on the eve of voting against Ukraine in Congress. Moscow's mistakes are so frequent and serious that they significantly weaken Russia's position.

The event also makes casual mistakes, but Russia does more harm. For many years, Moscow's mistakes have united NATO, pushed the US Congress to act against Russia and provoked the anger of European governments. Although politicians cannot expect that Russian misses will continue to consider the number of casual mistakes that Moscow has made over the years, and the consequences that she had to endure. History can recognize a full -scale invasion of Ukraine with the greatest mistake of modern Russia.

Ukraine prevented attacks on its largest cities (Kiev, Kharkiv, Odessa), returned half of the lands lost at the beginning of the war, and burned or damaged a third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. More than 400,000 Russian soldiers were killed and injured. Meanwhile, Ukrainians join Europe and probably to NATO, which restores and places more strength closer to Russia. History can recognize a full -scale invasion of Ukraine with the greatest mistake of modern Russia.

How could Russia allow this? Well, she had a lot of practice. And perhaps she did not learn the right lessons. The impressive mistakes began at the beginning of the Cold War. In 1948, the Soviet Union blocked the allies' land access to Western Berlin and organized a coup in a once democratic Czechoslovakia. These disagreements helped the West a year later to create a NATO - a military alliance, which the USSR considered the main enemy.

In 1962, the USSR secretly tried to place rockets with nuclear warheads in Cuba. After the United States was introduced by a naval quarantine, it took a step back. Soviet leaders considered the retreat "such that borders with humiliation. " The United States deserved a wide praise for the skillful management of the crisis. In June 1979, Presidents Leonid Brezhnev and Jimmy Carter signed the OSV-2 treaty in Moscow in Moscow, designed to restrict a long range of nuclear weapons.

The invasion of Afghanistan six months later prevented him from ratifying him in the Senate. About 60 countries were boycotting the Summer Olympic Games in Moscow in 1980. In the early 1980s, tens of thousands of Americans protested against President Ronald Reagan's proposal to build nuclear weapons. In 1983, the USSR knocked down the 007 "Korean Airlines", causing everyone who was on board, including 62 US citizens. This made it easier for Reagan's nuclear plans.

In the 1970s, the USSR began to secretly deploy the SS-20 missiles against Europe and Japan. In 1977, the Chancellor of Western Germany Helmut Schmidt urged NATO to respond. A few years later, against the backdrop of sharp Soviet threats, the Alliance launched his own missiles. For half a century, Russia has become a dominant natural gas supplier for most of Europe. But Russia's share in the import of the European Union fell sharply from more than 40 percent in 2021 to 8 percent in 2023.

Germany has closed the project with the Russian gas pipeline "Nord Stream" in the Baltic Sea. The burden of these mistakes is difficult. However, sometimes Russia is able to avoid the appropriate reaction because the event has other priorities or is naive. In the 1990s, the Great Seven invited Russia to join, although it was not a stable or prosperous democracy.

When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, there were other interests in the West: NATO wanted and accessed the Russian railway to supply its forces in Afghanistan, and the United States was eager both sides. The event is also not devoid of mistakes that are profitable to Moscow. The invasion of the pig bay in 1961 of the CIA prepared by the Anticastrovsky exiles erected the United States in an uncomfortable position.

The invasion of America into Iraq in 2003, despite resistance from Russia, helped her to strengthen her authority. Now, after the horrific attack of Hamas on October 7 last year, the infinite support of Israel from the United States leaves Russia a loophole in the Global South. But in Ukraine, the history of Russia's mistakes in relations with the West may end. Like Berlin's blockade, the war in Ukraine gives NATO vitality.

Like the invasion of Afghanistan, the war in Ukraine can push Congress to punish Russia. As with the placement of the SS-20 missiles, Europe considers the invasion of Ukraine as a direct encroachment on the interests of its security. Unlike the war of 2008 with Georgia, this time the pressure of the event on Russia is increasing, even against the background of a crisis in gas. The support of Ukraine by the event can accelerate the decline of Russia or weaken its imperial regime.

It depletes reserves to financing the military economy. Civil economy faces a lack of Western capital and technologies. The standard of living can soon cover most of the cost of war and can demoralize the Russians. These factors probably contributed to the collapse of the USSR. The event cannot count on new casual mistakes from Russia. But President Vladimir Putin and his former KGB cohort seem to have a mistake in Ukraine as soon as possible.