The GUR MU spoke about Moscow's goals on May 9. Will Russia throw strength in Kharkiv and Sumy regions
The Russian army achieves tactical success in the Donbass and moves southwest of the village of Ocheretyne. The invaders broke through the first line of defense and throw all the forces to achieve the main goal since 2022 - the "liberation" of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
The speed and success of the offensive in the East will determine when and where the troops of the Russian Federation strikes the next blow, said May 2 in an interview with The Economist Deputy Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR MO), Major General Vadim Skybitsky. Moscow celebrates Victory Day on May 9, by this date the Kremlin has set an important settlement.
In the event of a failure, the operation will be moved to the visit of President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin to Beijing in May 2024. It is especially important at the moment of confrontation - to maintain control of the dominant height, the city of the time of the ravine, which opens the road to the big cities of Donetsk region. Skybitsky believes that the city will fall in the same way as Avdiivka, which was broken in February. Question only in time.
"Our problem is very simple: there is no weapon. They [invaders] have always known that April and May would be difficult for us," says GUR. Alexander Pavlyuk, commander of the Land Forces, was also warned by the Land Forces in communication with the British newspaper The Times on May 2. The Armed Forces is being done so that this does not happen, but now the advantage of artillery and in the air - 10: 1 in favor of the enemy. "We hope that American weapons will help us.
If it came on time, we would not lose the territory for the last few months," the commander emphasizes. According to a military expert, the Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Petro Chernyk, high -ranking Ukrainian officials addressed the event serious warnings: it is impossible to relax for a moment on the issue of supplying weapons to Ukraine. The lightning and effective attacks of the Russians, according to analyst, are unrealistic.
Bakhmut's occupation took 10 months, and Avdiivka - about 10 years. "If the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are barely moving for a few hundred meters, how do they get 40 kilometers quickly? Personnel on the borders [Kharkiv and Sumy regions] at least 3 times should be increased to think about the attack. It is possible that these forces will be attacked, Nobody has been solving the suicide logic of the Russians.
Chernik allows limited attacks of groups on the border areas on the principle of "went and returned to the Russian Federation". GUR MO predicts the offensive of the Russians in Kharkiv and Sumy region in late May or early June. The display of danger depends on the strength of the Armed Forces defense in the Donbass. The number of invaders participating in a full -scale war in Ukraine is estimated at the level of 514,000 land soldiers.
Military intelligence data exceed the information of the Supreme Commander -in -Chief of the Joint NATO forces in Europe Christopher Cavoli: on April 11, he announced an increase in the Russian contingent over the last year from 360,000 to 470,000 people. The northern group of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation at the border with the Kharkiv region has 35,000 soldiers, but can be increased to 50 000-70,000.
In the central part of Russia, they additionally form a "division of reserves" from 15,000 to 20,000 people. The total forces are not enough to capture the big city, but in any case, "dark days" are waiting for Kharkiv, the Major General is sure. Oleksandr Pavlyuk believes that in June and July Russia mobilizes another 100,000 servicemen to strengthen the group in Ukraine.
At the end of 2024, Moscow would gain almost 300,000 soldiers, but it should be noted that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation lose from 25,000 to 30,000 people per month killed and injured. Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine, can be the purpose of Russian summer attack. "Our intelligence services say that the Armed Forces of Russia really has a plan for the capture of Kharkiv or Sumy.
We do not know how serious these plans are and whether they are able to implement them with the forces that are at their disposal," he expressed his opinion. Focus interviewed military experts believe that the offensive of Russia's troops will be harder than in February 2022. The invaders realized that Ukrainians would not meet them with flowers. Tanks, rockets and drones will be the first to fight, and the planes will be dumped.
The previous art preparation will last for several days, and then there will be a ground operation. The expectation of the attack of Russians between Kharkiv and Sumy regions in the direction of Poltava and further fits into the Dnieper. Occupation groups from the south - through the Zaporizhzhya region to the Dnieper, can be taken to meet the Dnieper, as a result of the Armed Forces in eastern Ukraine.
However, such a quick scenario of promotion is low -real, the reserve colonel, an expector of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Vladislav Seleznev, is convinced. The degree of problems for the Defense Forces of Ukraine depends mainly on the increase in the number of units in the Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod regions, the expert explains the focus.
It is known that the tank units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the occupied territories of Lugansk and Kharkiv regions will strengthen the 76th and 7th Airborne Divisions, deployed in the Rabotine region in the Zaporozhye region at the peak of the Armed Forces in the summer of 2023. However, the passage to Kharkiv through Kupyansk and Chuguev is complicated - it is necessary to approach the left bank of the Oskil River. It does not work, but the trend is threatening.
"14 echelons with equipment to the Kursk region, which borders with Sumy, will not change from the Leningrad region. The accumulation of Russian troops and equipment near the Ukrainian borders requires immediate military response. Otherwise, the occupiers will have to be stopped in Ukraine, endowing the danger of civilians. West against the use of long -range missiles in Russia, fearing involvement.
Obviously, because of this, all transmitted long -range missiles were limited within the action radius. French winged SCalp EG missiles can beat up to 450 kilometers, but Ukraine has received specimens that reach at least 250 kilometers, said the French political scientist, the head of the Center for Studying and Studying Nicolas Study in communication with Deutshe Welle. Recently, there has been a "Trend to Warming".
The United Kingdom does not deny if Ukraine strikes British weapons in Russia, the country's foreign minister David Kemeron said. It's about Storm Shadow missiles. According to Seleznev, in Germany and the United States will change the view of the use of long -range weapons. "Of course, the accumulation of troops should be monitored and attacked here and now, and not allow them to invade them. If the enemy is charging guns, it is worth beating," he says.
The question is the availability of resources - there are not many missiles from the West to destroy all the bases of the Russian army. There are more than 230 military facilities alone in Crimea. We will remind, on May 2 it became known about the departure of the Ukrainian military to safer positions from the village of Berdychi in the Avdiivsky direction.