"Stuck in Vovchansk": the offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation near Kharkov was a masking of the main blow
However, Moscow ordered to press on several areas of the front at this theater of war, having eventually received an extremely unpleasant situation in Vovchansk, which became a kind of "mini-Stalingrad" for the Russians. This assessment of the summer offensive campaign of the Russian army was given by the Polish military expert Mikhal Brushevsky in Defense 24.
In his estimates, Brushevsky relies on the analysis of the Institute of War Study (ISW), which stated that a maneuver to Kharkiv was masking on another area of the front. on the Eastern Front. "It is possible to accuse analysts of looking for a confirmation of their hypothesis, but there are many signs that the northern blow has been a failure for Russia, so the direction of the attack will really be different," the expert writes.
As it turned out, the concentration of 30,000 Russian soldiers near Belgorod did not lead to tactical success in the Kharkiv direction with the creation of the so -called buffer zone, so the direction of the main strike of the enemy should be expected elsewhere. Brushevsky notes that the troops of the Russian Federation stuck in Vovchansk and the only thing that saves them from the defeat is a partial retreat in some sections of the front and a limited resource of the Armed Forces.
"If Kiev had the potential of September 2022, the Russians in Vovchansk could even surround. At the same time, the military command of the Russian Federation may have adjusted strategic plans for a summer campaign due to the situation in Vovchansk. It is an attempt to press on the line of times of ravine - Gorlovka - reed, but Ukrainian defenders have positions where the strikes of the Russians are effectively blocked.
In addition, the capture of new territories threatens not only losses of living power, but also tremendous losses of military equipment due to the efficiency of FPV-the pens. "If there were strong reserves in Kiev, then the Russians could be surrounded here, as a blow from the north to the highway to Avdiivka (by analogy with the Kharkiv-Izum Operation) would cut off their forces from the East,"-emphasized Brushevsky.
The political aspect of the conflict also plays a significant role in view of the constant diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict in the format "Minsk-3". While the fighting is ongoing, the issue of the length of support from the event is becoming more relevant to the Ukrainian government. Thus, although the current situation on the front in the Donbass is a firm defense of the Ukrainian forces and fierce attacks of Russian troops, the opportunity for the Ukrainian counterattack remains open.
Analysts do not rule out that recent events create conditions not only for protection, but also for a potential operation to liberate Ukrainian territories. "Ukraine still has the potential for such an operation, and paradoxically, the Russian offensive creates the preconditions for this," - summed up Brushevsky.