The ceiling of oil prices from the Russian Federation: Moscow came up with 3 variants of the answer of the EU and G7 - Roszmi
The draft decree of the Russian President Vladimir Putin is discussed by his administration with the government, the interlocutors say. The newspaper describes three variants of events: the third option involves the introduction of an indicative price by Russia - the maximum discount of Russian oil Urals to the Brent reference variety. If this discount is increased, oil sales will be banned. This development of the events of the newspaper is considered the least probable.
The authorities have not yet approved any of these options, the possible alternative development of scenarios or their combination. The issue was to be discussed on December 6 at a presidential meeting in the presence of oil companies, the source specified. Russia has declared several times earlier that it would not supply oil to those who join the ceiling of prices.
Vice Prime Minister Alexander Novak believes that the price ceiling for Russian oil will cause an increase in prices for raw materials. Bloomberg wrote about the possible setting of the minimum price for international oil sales in response to the restrictions of the G-7 countries. "Russia seeks to offer buyers a transparent pricing mechanism. The Kremlin does not want to counteract the neutral states that buy its oil, putting pressure on them with non -market steps," one of the officials said.
The first and second variants of the possible response of Russia to the price ceiling for oil do not present anything new, said the expert from the stock market of the company "BCS World of Investment" Yevgen Mironyuk. These decisions only formalize the early statements of the authorities to refuse to supply raw materials to those who agreed with the price ceiling. The third option is probably canceled.
If you fix the discount for Brent oil, as a result there will be a non-market pricing for "friendly" Russian importing countries, Mironyuk explained. Determining the formula discount can also cause differences through which exported oil will be reduced. The analyst of the Russian "Sovcombank" Mikhail Vasilyev considers the most likely the second option, which will prohibit the supply under contracts under the ceiling.
Such a schedule will become flexible, oil from the Russian Federation will be present in the markets and everyone will receive the benefit, he said. The senior Alfa-Bank analyst Nikita Blokhin also considers the second answer to the most likely. According to him, this option was announced by Novak and spokesman of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov.
Russia will not be fully banned from supplying those who have joined the price ceiling, since large volumes of Russian oil are sold through trading operations. "Novak said that Russia will remain flexible, so the editorial board of the third countries through intermediaries is likely to be possible if Russia has a price," Blokhin said. Recall that on December 5, the oil embargo on the supply of Russian oil to Europe began to operate.