The collapse of Russia and the fears of the West. Why America is not ready for the full victory of Ukraine

The United States is afraid of power collapse in Russia and therefore does not want the complete defeat in the war, the analyst Valery Pekar states. And it doesn't matter that the lives of Ukrainians will be paid. If you draw all aspects of present war and international relations on one large sheet, and then look for the narrowest place on which it all depends ("neck from a bottle", a key restriction of the system according to Goldratt's theory), then we will finally find it.

It will be the Muscocentrism of the American establishment. For a number of reasons, Americans are looking for the key to understanding the past, present and future USSR and the Russian Federation exclusively in Moscow. Considering the one -dimensional model "power in Moscow is consolidated - power in Moscow is scattered", they do not see other scenarios, but only these two. Collapse scares more than the stalinization and continuation of the war.

This means that in the face of the threat of collapse of the Russian Federation - the US will rather inclined to strengthen the Kremlin regime, which is considered less evil. Prigogine has greatly reduced time, exacerbating the understanding that the Putin regime is really weak. We came close to a critical point. Our allies want our victory, but at the same time they are afraid of it. After all, they see our victory solely as a collapse of the Russian Federation, which is unacceptable.

Therefore, they are looking for a middle point when the Russian Federation has not lost completely, and we did not completely win. Therefore, they limit supply so that the defeat of the Russian Federation is not complete. How many will die because of this, it does not matter. The war will return later, but it will be later. Now the main thing for them is to prevent collapse. First, it is the way to nowhere. Secondly, this is a mistake.

This is the same mistake that was made in 1991, when the United States tried to preserve the USSR, which was no longer possible. Who does not remember 1991, look for Chicken Kyiv Speech. And in 1917 the Entente tried to maintain the unity of Russia, which became one of two reasons for the defeat of our grandparents. The FSB managed to mislead everyone that there were no peoples, all have long gone and Russified, no national elites and aspirations for freedom.

It was easy for Americans to be deceived because they were already Muscocentric, but much of the Ukrainians were cheated. Operating a one -dimensional model, Americans see only two bad scenarios. They are overlooked by the third decolonization/deimperialization scenario because it does not fit into their picture of the world. And to give up their picture of the world they are not ready, even how much lives it costs.

The worst part for the Americans who see (stalinization and collapse) in both scenarios they see. As if they were doing everything right, and the main geopolitical rival wins in all scenarios? So something is wrong in basic assumptions. The fate of the Russian Federation will not be resolved in Moscow, just as in 1991. What to do? To use all the chances to explain to the Americans the fallacy of Muscocentrism and the inability of repetition of errors in 1917 and 1991.