Freezing war without recognition of losses: 6 possible scenarios for Ukraine and one real
So, having studied all the possible scenarios, I got 6. 1. "Frozen without recognition" (probability ~ 45%): 2. "Positive breakthrough" (~ 4%). Then I expel these scenarios through the Monte Carlo method with the use of AI (construction and analysis of more than 1 thousand scenarios). And received the likelihood of every scenario. So. Scenario 1 (freezing without recognition) - basic: brief.
After the round of Great Diplomacy - Trump -Putin meetings and Washington's consultations with Kiev and Europeans - the contours in the coming year became clearer. The most likely regime of de facto fixing the front line without legal recognition ("freezing without recognition") with a simultaneous attempt to collect a package of security guarantees such as Art. 5 NATO and a large armed industry, which is largely funded by European, with purchases in the United States.
This reduces the risk of Russia's strategic breakthrough, but does not exclude "low and medium -intensity wars" (!) - UAVs, rockets, kyerperatives and energy pressure on both sides. The context of the last 7 days - diplomacy in Fast Deal mode: what does Trump want? As the above, the most likely scenario for 12 months: "freezing without recognition.
" What it means in practice: what it gives: the time of strength, the restoration of the power system, the budgetary predictability and the industrialization of the defense. What does not give: full -fledged de -occupation and legal peace; "freezing" vulnerable to disruption. Key risks: what to do to Ukraine: a conditional plan for 30/90/180 days 1) to cement "guarantees as a mechanic", not a slogan (30-60 days): 2) to build aircraft-shield + energy armor (up to winter).
It is not enough time, but we have been building something for the third year: 3) the localization of the defense and MRO in Ukraine (90-180 days): 4) Financial circuit and insurance (up to the quarter): 5) political and legal cleanliness (constantly): 6) Communication for the Allies and the Market (continuously) It will be highly probable under the sign of "freezing without recognition".
It is not a defeat or victory, but an industrial-border pause, which needs to be converted into a powerful air-spite, "energy-body" and a localized defense. The key to sustainability is the rigid guarantee mechanic and the economy of the agreement, where every ally understands what he pays and what he receives. For Ukraine, the rate is simple - to increase power faster than the enemy will have time to break the pause. It will work or not - it depends only on us.