Pokrovsk, Kurakhov and Kupyansk: where fierce battles are waiting for the Armed Forces and where the Russian Federation will go (map)
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky called the approximate terms of attack: late May or beginning of June. According to the Head of State, the invaders in October 2023 did not bring results. Difficult times for Ukraine will come in March-April because of the fluctuations in the US authorities on weapons supply. For its part, the United States influence decisions in parts of the European Union.
The turning point will be elections in the United States, after which an understanding of the situation will come, warned Zelensky. Ukraine will prepare for battle with the Russians according to its own plan. But Kiev needs sufficient support for partners to keep defense in 2024, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR MO) Kirill Budanov told the journalists of The Wall Street Journal.
Despite problems with the supply of the army, the head of military intelligence is optimistic and counts on the counter -offensive of the Armed Forces in 2025. "Will they (Western allies of Ukraine - ed. ) Are ready to provide us with weapons and ammunition for the whole year, while we are preparing, or not? This is an interesting question," he emphasized. After the release of Ukrainian forces from Avdiivka, the situation is difficult, but the enemy is difficult.
The professional army of the Russian Federation was largely destroyed in the first year of invasion, and now Moscow is throwing into the battle of unprepared conscripts. The Russians spend more ammunition than produce, and most of the tanks put in 2023 - old ones, reassures Budanov. At the same time, GUR MO warned Russia's desire in 2024 to produce 2. 7 million ammunition. The flow of shells on the front line can be continuous.
Ukraine is still awaiting the promised million shells from the European Union, but has actually received less than half. In the forecasts of the new offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Zelensky almost repeated the analysis of the British Financial Times. After talking to several Ukrainian officials, journalists reported that during a summer large -scale offensive, the Russian Army would try to seize the territories that she announced annexation in September 2022.
It is about Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions. Budanov disagrees with this assessment and states that the priority goal of the occupiers for the current year is to fully occupy Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The interlocutors of the publication allow for the capture of Kharkiv and even Kiev. American intelligence believes that the ultimate goal of Russian President Vladimir Putin about war in Ukraine is to conquer and enslave.
Therefore, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation come in eastern Ukraine in several directions: around Avdiivka, in the direction of estuary and Kupyansk. One of the Western officials in conversation with the authors of the material acknowledged that the prospects for a significant breakthrough of the front line by the parties that are fighting in 2024.
The active defense strategy, which provides for the search for weaknesses of the Russian army and strikes of long-range weapons, will enable Ukraine to increase strength in 2024 and prepare for 2025, Finansial Times writes. Obviously, the Russians are at the peak of offensive opportunities, so they are attacking immediately in the east and south of Ukraine, says the head of the Center for Military Legal Research Alexander Musienko.
The forces of the invaders will be enough until April, maximum of May. Then they will pause for at least one and a half months and restore combat activity, the expert thinks. "Much depends on the acquisition and provision of hostile units. The Ukrainian forces continue to cause tangible losses, but depend on Western assistance. The more weapons, the more likely to stop the army , - he believes.
Active fighting continues throughout the collision line and departure of the Armed Forces from some territories, according to Musienko, is quite real. Tactical indentations, departure to more fortified positions and maneuvers between the borders are acceptable for a defense strategy. "But to draw apocalyptic waste scenarios to the Right Bank is not worth it," - said the analyst. Russian troops are keeping the offensive initiative and will continue until Ukraine grows military power.
Talking about the offensive operations of the Ukrainian army in 2024 - a clear mistake, commented on the focus of the Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert Sergey Grabsky. It is impossible to predict what the expected summer offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will have. Even Moscow does not always count the action for such a long time, he is convinced.
"When we talk about the initiative of the Russians, it means the beginning of the offensive on any section of the front. Our task is to keep the entire front line. We can assume that they will go in the area of Avdiivka, but where: to Pokrovsk or Konstantinovka? 'Yunka - on Kurakhov or Novomikhailivka and down for the coal? ” - Asks Grabsky questions. In Kupyansk, the situation is also unpredictable: possible attacks on Kupyansk, estuary or in the Svatov area.
"It all depends on the stability of the Armed Forces defense. According to the classics of the genre, after the retreat from Avdiivka, the offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation at a speed of 20-30 kilometers a day. The focus earlier analyzed in detail how the plan of the Summer Counter -Offset of the Armed Forces got to Moscow. Probably, the invaders were not accidentally blown up the Kakhovsky hydroelectric power station the day before the active phase of battles.