Ukraine is restructuring debt. The Russians will shout about the default of Ukraine. Let them shout
The logic, according to which is only about freezing, is quite obvious. Before the end of the war, it is difficult to understand in what financial state Ukraine will finish it. Therefore, it is difficult to determine now the fair conditions of future debt service. Namely - what part of the market debt will need to be written off (and whether it will be done in principle) and what coupon will be in Ukrainian Eurobonds of a new sample.
Restructuring at this time is logical when the state budget deficit reaches $ 5 billion on a monthly basis, and it is not possible to completely block it with Western assistance, to pay for the bourgeois "bourgeois" is not started. It's not about unworthy behavior or loss of trust. Rather, investors would twist their finger near the temple if Ukraine continued to discuss its debts in the current situation, as it happened, ignoring the budget deficit and Russian missiles.
Receiving the money of Western taxpayers, Ukraine faces a situation where our partners hint that it is not good if the money that is sent to support the social sphere in Ukraine will suddenly go to investors from London and New York who have no problems of this kind. In addition, they often hint that everyone has to pay, including private investors.
And the latter, as professional players, are responsible for the fact that for four months they ignored the warnings of American intelligence and did not sell those debts of Ukraine and Russia that had on the balance sheet. The restructuring conditions are expected, especially after they have partially illuminate NAK Naftogaz of Ukraine in its proposal. Therefore, no sales (as well as special active purchases) in the market after their publication.
The existing price of Ukrainian sovereign debt (about 20% of the nominal of most of the securities) has long been both this restructuring and the continuation of the war, and even, it seems, the fall of meteorite. A joke or not, but Ukrainian Eurobonds are traded cheaper than Sri Lanka's debts, which went to a tough default, and the president of the country against the background of mass protests through the economic crisis fled to the Maldives (though not in Rostov-on-Don, and then).
Below is only Lebanon, where for several years, Ukraine has been traded in economics, sung by Ukrainian amateurs of therapeutic default. The Russians will shout about the default of Ukraine. Let them shout. Ukraine is restructuring, agreeing with its creditors. And creditors understand the situation. In addition, the creditors would be surprised if Ukraine had not restructured against the background of Russia's aggressive war and a fall in GDP by 30%.
Therefore, the Russian Federation can only envy this situation. Because the moral default of the Russians goes in parallel with the formal default, and Ukraine is doing everything to maintain the reputation. At the same time, Ukraine is also a special duty of restructuring of the notorious values. At the same time, the most anerators that were actively discussed by Ukrainian politicians after 2015 restructuring.
When many shouted that the Vaunta would bankrupt the country, because payments for them would be crazy. Since then, however, investors have not received anything, but it has not interfered with shouting Ukrainian politicians. However, in view of everything to minimize such risks, Ukraine asks for investors to grant the right to early ransom at the face value of these instruments.