There will be no quick agreement on Ukraine. Why does Trump failure and what Putin wants

Trump no longer turned out to have a quick peace in Ukraine, political scientist Viktor Nevzhenko states. But even if it turned out, such a feverish contract simply could not guarantee a reliable and long -lasting rest. Agreement or negotiations? Trump is in a hurry and in dire need of victory to strengthen his influence in the US domestic policy, where a wave of the detached and hidden resistance of its conservative revolution is growing.

Putin, on the contrary, will slow down the negotiation process, taking it to the wrong paths and deaf angles. Putin still hopes for great success in the war with Ukraine and believes in the miracle of victory. But he is already unpleasant in front of China, North Korea and Iran. Having struck in Ukraine, he creates great problems to his allies, which, like him, were confident in his rapid victory over Ukraine.

And now Putin, even if he wanted, he does not know how to get out of Ukraine, how to end the war without losing power in Moscow. The war manages power and economy in Russia. Probably, there will be no quick and successful agreement as Trump seeks, because Putin is dangerous and disadvantageous to end the war and risk his allied relations with China, which the US is counting on.

The prolonged negotiation process will be accompanied by bluffs, aggression outbreaks and provocations of the Kremlin against Ukraine and its allies in Europe. China also does not like that the negotiation process happens without its participation. He is fairly afraid that Moscow can betray Beijing for the sake of US concessions in Ukraine, which Putin will issue on May 9 for his victory in the war.

Therefore, if Trump does not succeed in a short time to conclude an agreement with Putin's expense of Europe and Ukraine, then Beijing will have to connect to the negotiation process. Moreover, Trump is in a hurry and, along with negotiations on the truce in Ukraine, tries to tear Belarus from Russia and China.

If Trump is lucky and he will make concessions of Ukraine and Russia, then the rapid victory in negotiations (agreement) will not lead to a long peace, and the truce will be brittle and fake, because as a result of a "one -time compromise" all but Trump lose . Trump America will intercept leadership in exporting international chaos in Putin Russia. And then everything will have to start over - to look for a peace agreement in Ukraine, but given the interests of China, the US, Europe and Russia.