A deadlock for Israel, a threat to Ukraine. As the war in the Middle East can grow into a third world
The more and fierce the rocket strokes in the Gaza Sector - the more casualties will be among the civilians. The military efficiency of such blows is a big question, given the kilometers of underground tunnels, the video of which is published by Hamas with rockets. With every new victim among the civilians of the Arab population's sympathy for the Palestinians and the pressure on their rulers demanding that Hamas will grow.
And a total blockade that will soon lead to a humanitarian catastrophe will only contribute to the anti -Israeli sentiment at least in the Muslim world. After the starting operation of the tank (here is only the beginning of its beginning), another proxy of Iran will enter the conflict - "Hezbolla", which has already stated full readiness (in fact, they were preparing for this scenario in advance). This is what the leadership of Iran, who dreams of destroying Israel, seeks.
But they just lack the support of Arab countries that have just established its relations with Israel in recent years. It is not only about the disruption of the diplomatic between Israel and Saudi Arabia, but about much worse consequences. After the war of the "Judge Day" 50 years ago, the Arab Gulf countries declared an oil embargo on the event, which led to a sharp increase in oil prices. Who is looking forward to this? Of course, Putin.
This will not only increase energy prices and lead to a new round of inflation, but also the rapid increase in the popularity of right -wing populists in both Europe and the US. So the chances of Trump's victory will increase sharply. Well, for us, it will turn into a decline and even the termination of military and financial assistance from the EU and US Allies in the second half of 2024, if the war in the Middle East is delayed. What is already openly says Netanyag himself.
Therefore, Slovakia can only become a "first bell" and in the club of "rod-pupalists" named after Orban-Fitzo will be replenished. But this may seem "flowers" if the conflict reaches the stage when Israel begins to make massive blows to Iran. There they have been preparing for the war for a long time, and their MIC, unlike ours, developed for a long time, even in the conditions of sanctions, and their "Shahda" is only a trifle.
The ballistic missiles, which they have enough, will probably be transferred to Russia, and they will fly not only to Israel, but also to Ukraine. And local conflicts in Ukraine and Israel can rapidly develop into the Third World War with nuclear weapons. So far, this is the most horrifying option. What three days ago seemed incredible. But every day it becomes more realistic.
We can quarrel with our Western partners for not giving us long -range missiles and planes, but this scenario, in their opinion, is thus trying to avoid. But when new unknown people appear in the equation and more players come into the conflict, especially those who have nuclear weapons (Israel) ready to apply it (against Iran), then the stability of the system becomes even more shaky, and the decisions of several people can provoke " Dominoe effect.
" Another extremely negative factor is that this war seeks to provoke the fanciful religious fanatics (Ayatoli). This is much worse than corrupt Kremlin elders who are afraid to lose their billions, which are stored in the West. And fuel for ignition of war is hatred, in the Middle East region much more than in Ukraine and Russia combined. There, the conflict lasts for decades, and whole generations have grown, raised in hatred, not love. Here is what frightens and can become a "trigger".