The Kremlin is gaining more and more problems due to forceful mobilization, the Armed Forces continue the offensive on the eastern coast of Oscol - ISW

Mobilization in Russia has become a rare occasion when the Kremlin's lie is that the call is allegedly partial and applies only to people with service experience - obvious to Russians, regardless of access to media or social networks. Because of this, mobilization goals for Moscow are transformed into a "very difficult problem". About it writes in his new summary on September 26 the American Institute of War Study.

His analysts say that the Kremlin is mobilizing as if it were a requirement for conscripts in general, not the mobilization of reservists, which only exacerbates social dissatisfaction. Video of the Kremlin's efforts to reassure the Russian population has not yet been successful, is reminiscent of ISW. On September 25, the protests took place in at least 35 settlements, on September 26 - at least 10.

The power suppression of protest shares continues, cases of warning fire of security forces at shares, arson of military enlistment offices, self -burning. "The Kremlin has a very difficult task - to try to reassure the Russian people, but at the same time mobilize enough people to continue the fighting," the ISW analysts emphasize.

At the same time, the current Kremlin narrative is aimed at reassuring the panicing population with promises to "correct" and "punish" bureaucrats on the ground for alleged "mistakes" of a mobilization campaign. Thus, Moscow tries to remove the guilt for the fact that the Russian government does not adhere to the criteria of mobilization.

However, this approach is unlikely to solve the Kremlin's problems for a number of reasons, it is considered in ISW: "These imperatives are likely to be mutually exclusive [for implementation] for a short period of time," - insists ISW. At the same time, the Kremlin risks even more confidence in regional mobilization institutes (including military enlistment offices), if it accuses them of "bends" of the campaign, which was organized and "released" by Moscow itself.

"Even a competent conscription of Russian reserves is unlikely to create considerable combat power [at the front] in Ukraine in the near future," the institute analysts say. They remind that the reduction of service for conscripts since 2008 has been making most reservists called after this period, insufficient competent to significantly strengthen the Russian army in the current conditions and without significant additional training.

However, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation does not seem to take steps to make these recruits more useful. ISW predicts that the Kremlin's annexation of the occupied territory of Ukraine may occur before or shortly after October 1 - the beginning of a regular autumn conscription in Russia, which would allow the Kremlin to provide forced conscription of Ukrainian civilians to participate in the war against the Armed Forces.

Unlawfully declaring Ukrainians "Russian citizens", the Kremlin will be able to count on the forced call of all Ukrainian men in the occupied territories aged 18 to 27. Commenting on unconfirmed information that the Armed Forces probably destroyed the Russian Center for Training and Management of Iranian drones on Kinburn Spit (Kherson Region), ISW reminds that this braid is the most western territory that the Russian army is still controlled in the Black Sea.