Four Scenarios: How can a conflict between Russia and the EU develop by 2030
The central basic principles of this order are the inviolability of the borders between sovereign nation -states and the ban on aggressive war. Russia even went beyond the aggressive war and wages the invading war, which envisages annexation of the territory of another country. The stated goal of the war is to put an end to the existence of an independent Ukrainian nation and a sovereign Ukrainian state.
In this way, Russia attacks an order that was built in Western Europe after World War II and adopted in the east of the continent after the Cold War with NATO. The war radically changes Europe's relations with Russia. The idea of a close partnership that has characterized the West's policy on Russia since the end of the Cold War has clearly failed. There is still no consistent new policy on Russia.
At this time, Europe, led by Washington, agreed on a double approach: support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. How do relations with Russia in the coming years develop in these circumstances? There are four scenarios. The time horizon is 2030, that is, a medium -term future. This scenario is most unlikely, experts believe, but only if it is prevented in time.
Russia is substantially re -re -entered, invests in its armed forces, and is supported by a number of partners in this: in particular, from China, double -use goods, from Iran with drone and ballistic missiles, from North Korea with ammunition. At the same time, Putin has repeatedly made it clear that he was interested not only in Ukraine but also in the dominant position in Eastern and Eastern central Europe. The Russian frontal attack is the least probable option.
However, it is quite possible to provoke the incident; The Baltic countries are perfect for this. Russia may invade the protection of ethnic Russians. Thus, this will force NATO states either to respond to the military means or to reveal the invalidity of NATO's promises for protection without acting, and thus weaken European security. In the future, this will open up additional opportunities for Russia. How this scenario can develop will depend on the response of the event.
Determined and rapid resistance could restrain the conflict and keep it at the level of the "incident". However, longer fluctuations would allow Russia to kill a wedge in the Alliance - between the countries of Eastern and Northern Europe, which are determined to stop Russian expansion, even expensive price, and those countries seeking forceful political decision. Compromise with Russia. The second scenario for the next few years involves maintaining tension at the current level.
Russia continues to attack Ukraine, there are periods of intensification of hostilities and lull, perhaps in the form of ceasefire. However, both sides still see the opportunity to win the war and do not give up. At the same time, Russia increases its hybrid war against the West, using misinformation and propaganda, as well as periodically masked attacks. Particularly strong pressure she exerts Georgia and Moldova, continues the gradual annexation of Belarus.
The West, as before, indecisive in its support of Ukraine: it gives enough that Ukraine does not give up and could continue to resist Russia, but it is not enough for it to win the war. It is possible that the event will fully support Ukraine. After the ceasefire, Ukraine will be so protected by the West that Russia will be hopelessly continuing the war. The event increases the Ukrainian armed forces and supplies everything you need.
Because Ukraine now has reliable security guarantees, investors come to the country, refugees return, Ukraine recovers from the consequences of war. At the same time, Georgia and Moldova are protected from Russian aggression. This means that Russia loses its military choice against its western neighbors. Although it can continue hybrid surgery, it will restrain it because the West strengthens its armed forces and offers itself as a reliable partner to the countries of the region.
The fourth scenario is unlikely. Vladimir Putin's successor will probably continue his course. However, it is unclear whether it will soon have the same level of government and whether it can control the country as effectively as Putin. It is possible that Putin's successor will not be able to worry about the conquest of neighboring countries, as he will first have to consolidate power within the country.
It is possible that not only the change of the position of management will occur, but also the change of the regime - and again take the mountain more liberal positions. As with the death of Stalin in 1953, the thaw can again occur in Moscow, and with it the opportunity to open the event.
In this case, the event will have to make efforts to make new proposals for cooperation and integration, without closing, as it was after the Cold War, his eyes to the issue of territorial integrity and sovereignty of Russia's neighbors. The prerequisite for cooperation should be a clear rejection of imperial ambitions. The event should prepare for all possible scenarios. What is happening in Russia cannot be controlled from the outside.
But the West is able to form a strategic environment in which Russia operates, which in turn affects Russia itself. The more clearly the West rejects Moscow's attempt to use military force and hybrid war to restore the dominant position in Eastern and Central and Eastern Europe, the greater the likelihood that Russia will refuse this project. Defense and restraint occupy a central place in self -affirmation of Europe against new Russian imperialism.