To buy housing during the war: is it meaningful to invest in real estate during instability? Expert response
According to the Ministry of Justice, in 2020, Ukrainians purchased 315 647 real estate objects of different types, namely apartments, estates and homes. The following year, this figure only grew - more than 368 thousand transactions were concluded. And then came 2022: at dawn on February 24, we met a new reality.
In this, the experts of the Greenville group will tell you what the real estate market will be in the near future, how risky it is risky to buy an apartment during the war and how not to make fatal mistakes. When they speak guns, investors are silent in the last pre-war year of real estate sales only gaining momentum: in the first quarter of 2021, Ukrainians purchased about 68 thousand objects, and in the fourth-almost 120 thousand.
According to Colliers Emea, investors paid the most attention to office (more than 30%), logistics (26%) and residential (17%) premises. Experts believed that the cost of housing in 2022 in large cities would increase by about 7%, ie the market would be stable. Therefore, real estate investment forecasts were quite positive. According to the estimates of some specialists, those who invested at the stage of the pit at the end of 2021 should now come into profit.
The full -scale war turned upside down. In March it was not yet fully understood whether the Ukrainian capital would be maintained under the pressure of the Russians. The hot phase has just begun, so virtually all capital construction objects were paused. The difficult situation was difficult to fall in the economy and the devaluation of the national currency.
The developer industry began to slowly recover in the summer when the war became positional and the plans of the enemy for Blitzkrig were finally buried. However, according to the URE Club study, only 21. 2% of companies in Ukraine resumed work on projects in 2022. Some estimates were up to two -thirds of developer companies at the end of last year, and about 30% of investors who bought housing in installments or mortgage were unable to pay it because of financial difficulties.
Alternatively, real estate in other countries was considered. "However, investing abroad is a way to save money. In this case, the profitability is minimal, especially in the short and average perspective," - emphasizes Greenville Commercial Director Ruslana Grabko. In the nine months of 2022, the real estate market has fallen almost three times, according to OPENDABUTT. From April to May, only 9. 4 thousand agreements were concluded in Ukraine.
Ruslana Grabko notes that regardless of the industry, the general trend in the market in 2022 looked as follows: freezing or closing of all projects in the first two months of full -scale invasion, partial restoration of work in the spring, gradual restoration on the objects of critical infrastructure. 2023: Recovery of the market permanently the real estate market began to recover only recently.
According to the Greenville Commercial Director, in the spring this year the pace of construction increased significantly compared to the summer of 2022. Even more: new projects are launched. "We, for example, restored construction in Kiev last June. We actively build our Greenville Park and Greenville projects all year long. The capital appeared three new residential complexes, and in the Kiev region - seven.
Dynamics changed: unlike last summer the pace of construction has grown, " - states the expert. In May, the Ministry of Finance, together with partners, conducted a sociological survey and found that more than 36% of Ukrainians were invested in real estate. It is this option for saving money in extreme time that the top 3 answers to the question of which investment tool you want to try in the near future (the other two-shares of foreign companies and agricultural land).
"We will be honest, not all companies wait for victories in good shape. In spite of all the market is more optimistic and proactive," says Ure Club Olga Solovey. Developers also adapt relatively quickly to a new reality. About 65% of developers are planning to start working on new projects this year, and 21. 6% will be partially done. Only 13. 7% still have no plans to build new objects.
That is, even in times of uncertainty, professionals have learned to work, implement and plan, although martial law requires additional costs to cover possible risks. According to experts from the team Greenville, in the near future, provided a stable military-political situation (at least, the preservation of such as now) will resume demand in Kiev. The factor of internal migration plays an important role in this. The Greenville Manager Olga Karpuk notes that according to IOM data, 5.
4 million internally displaced persons are currently registered in Ukraine. In Kiev, it is, to a greater extent, migrants from Kharkiv, Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Dnipro, Kherson and more. Many of them have the material opportunity and desire to equip life in a new place in their own apartment. In fact, they are one of the decisive drivers of demand for housing today.
What to pay attention to the investor's devaluation of the hryvnia quickly eats accumulation, banks in the period of deep economic crisis and martial law are unreliable, buying shares of domestic companies is risky, and to open their own business in the present conditions requires great courage. Therefore, investing in real estate now is the best option for those who do not dare to risk their own funds and seek the opportunity to keep financial assets from inflation.
Ruslana Grabko notes that the following points should be provided before purchasing square meters: location. By February 24, important factors when choosing a residential complex were the distance to the subway, a comfortable transport interchange, the presence of internal and external infrastructure.
Now the consumer has new wishes: remoteness from military objects, objects of critical infrastructure, the presence of shelter, underground parking, pay attention to the type of design of the house - that is, all those changes that are related to the specificity of our present. History. It is important to pay attention to the history of a developer company, to analyze their activities in recent years, to study the reputational component (feedback, the presence in the media, scandals, etc.
), to follow the behavior during the war. Even a superficial search through Google will allow you to form a certain idea of the developer. Participation of the company in profile organizations and clubs is also a positive factor. Of course, the perfect reputation is not a guarantee of reliability, but a big step towards it. Documentation. The company should have a complete package of permits: the object under construction should be legal.