The Kremlin intends to carry out a terrorist attack in Belarus to draw Lukashenko into the war - analysts
Thus, the Kremlin intends to enhance the social effect of the mass shooting in the City Holi City and to draw Belarus into a full -scale war against Ukraine. This is stated in the study of the analytical center of Robert Lansing Institute. Referring to their sources, the authors of the publication write that the probable terrorist attack will be picked up by the propaganda of the Kremlin, who, after a recent incident near Moscow, accused Kiev of supporting terrorists.
According to experts, this will eventually drawn into the war of Alexander Lukashenko, who, although he had not been apart from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before, passing the Russian troops through the territory of Belarus in February 2022, but did not attract his army. "The involvement of Belarus into the war will create local combat centers along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, which will force Kiev to remove some of their reserve forces from the war zone to the border with Belarus.
Such a scenario will allow the Russians to transfer some of their troops to Kharkiv or Sumy. Experts noted. Meanwhile, the involvement of Belarus in the war is not aimed at the real involvement of the combat potential of the country, which, according to analysts, is at a fairly low level. In this case, Moscow pursues two goals: the second goal is conditioned by the Kremlin's desire to overthrow Lukashenko and create a puppet regime.
For its part, it will provide Putin with a number of new opportunities, including the total military conscription of Belarusian men, which would be a decision in the situation in the absence of prospects for the Armed Forces in the Trench War in Ukraine. "Thus, it cannot be excluded that Russia -planned attacks will be directed against the Belarusian political leadership, which will make it easier to force Minsk to join the military campaign against Ukraine," analysts summed up.