"Will be like 8 years in the Donbass": will the fire of the Russian Federation stop and whether Ukraine will win from it
The other day, the leader of the "Servant of the People" faction, David Arahamia, put on the agenda a rather debatable issue about negotiations with Russia. According to him, the aggressor country was ready to end the war last spring in exchange for the refusal of Ukraine to join NATO. Official Kiev disagreed for such conditions for several reasons.
Obvious - the Russians did not cause trust, and there were no guarantees that do not take advantage of the situation to prepare for a more powerful blow. This "proposal" is also contrary to the Constitution, which prescribes the main directions of Ukraine's development and a course for joining the EU and NATO. And the last role in refusing to shake his hand in the Russian delegation has played the words of the former Prime Minister of Great Britain.
According to Arahamia, Boris Johnson persuaded the Ukrainian authorities to continue fighting for his country and not to sign agreements with Russia. Currently, the position of official Kiev remains unchanged - ceasefire is possible only after Ukraine returns to the borders of 1991. Russia, however, declares its willingness to fight for a long time, but sometimes looks at the Korean Scenario plan, in which the front line is frozen taking into account the occupied territories.
Western media are often written about Ukraine's pushing for peace talks, citing anonymous officials. But officially such theses were not heard from American or European allies of Kiev.
Ukraine itself rejects any dialogues about peace with Putin-President Zelensky even signed the relevant decree in October last year: the National Security Council stated the impossibility of holding peace talks from the Russian Federation on the settlement of a full-scale war, while the president of the aggressor country is Vladimir Putin. At the same time, the tension in eastern Ukraine is increasing and the threat of Avdiivka, a large stronghold of the Armed Forces, has already emerged.
It is suggested that new territorial losses will make the Allies think about the expediency of allocating Kiev large defense budgets. But political analysts interviewed by focus are convinced that the event will not stop infusion, since the price of defeat of Ukraine will be even more expensive. "From a mercantile point of view, too much has been invested in Ukraine since February 2022.
If you stop everything, you will have to take trillions of dollars for confrontation with Russia, which will go to Europe with the support of China and" Global South, " - explains the security expert, the security expert. President of the Center of Globalism "strategy XXI" Mikhail Gonchar.
According to the expert, there are no prerequisites for Russia's readiness for negotiations, and even if they were - the eight -year hybrid war in the Donbass demonstrated that the occupiers are easily capable of breaking the ceasefire.
As of 1991, no one has prescribed temporary schedules for the return of the territories, despite the slow course 20 ATACMS missiles? Part of the deputies of the State Duma Committee on Defense, the Deputy Chairman of the Council Dmitry Medvedev and representatives of marginal nationalist movements insist in the war "to the victorious" with the subsequent entry into Europe.
These plans are partly confirmed by the fact that Putin has signed the budget of Russia for 2024-2026, in which almost a third of expenditures go to the maintenance of the army and the defense-industrial complex. The calculation is that Russia will have enough resources for a long war.
And a radical fracture of the course of the war in favor of the Russian Federation due to the weakening of Western support of Ukraine will allow Putin to put forward the conditions stiffer, with the further absorption of Ukrainian territories. Based on current realities, Russia is not at all set to cease fire.
The prerequisites for this were in March and in the fall of 2022 after the Armed Forces of Kharkiv and Kherson operations, the political scientist, expert of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future Yuri Romanenko said. "Ukraine does not seek to strengthen its own negotiation position. We would help the quick and large results of the counter -offensive, but there are no. And Moscow will not talk to Kiev to get fewer territories than it already has," he explains Focus.
Without the economy on military rails, strategic prospects for Ukraine will deteriorate every couple of months. The Russians had a long war that confirmed a record increase in defense costs in 2024. Also, Moscow stopped considering the Korean Scenario and tuned for a total victory, the specialist emphasizes. Fiscal crisis will increase in the reduction of cash infusions in Ukraine. Kyiv will so be forced to speak "worse than it was yesterday.
" "When [NATO's former Secretary Generals Fog] Rassmusen offered to accept Ukraine in NATO without occupied territories, it was the most advantageous position for us," the expert says. We will remind, Putin at the G20 summit again declared the consent of the Kremlin to negotiate with Ukraine. The Russian dictator noted that the war is "always the tragedy of specific people, families and the country as a whole. " Focus wrote earlier that the lasting war would have a very negative impact on Ukraine.