The Russian Federation can attack NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine: whether Article 5 is involved, - political scientist

The placement of peacekeepers in Ukraine is regarded as a way to hold back Russia's aggression. But will it be a safety guarantee, will it cause a new escalation? Political scientist Oleg Posternak explained focus what risks and opportunities it could have. Political scientist Oleg Posternak explained in a comment to Focus that the placement of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine is regarded as a tool for deterrent to Russia and its possible aggressive actions in the future.

"Russia has not reached all its goals set in 2022, but continues to make plans. Knowing Ukraine's desire to return its territories, it will prepare for new aggressive steps. To avoid such a scenario in the coming years, until Ukraine enters NATO, the idea The placement of a peacekeeping contingent looks quite working. He specified that such forces could be placed on the front line or on the borders with Belarus and Russia, where there are no active fighting.

At the same time, the rights and obligations of peacekeepers will be determined depending on the mandate of the mission. "If it is a UN mission is one rules, if the OSCE is another. If it is a foreign troops, it will require separate agreements between Ukraine and the participating countries. Such decisions must be approved by the Verkhovna Rada with a clear definition of conditions, principles and terms foreign contingents, "the political scientist added.

However, posterak does not exclude the risks of attacks by Russia even on peacekeepers. Moscow can consider a scenario of direct attack on these forces. Considering Russia's previous threats to NATO countries, sabotage actions and incidents with drones and missiles in Poland and Romania, it is difficult to predict the restraint of the aggressor.

According to the expert, the attack on peacekeepers representing NATO countries can theoretically be interpreted as an attack on the Alliance, launching a mechanism of consultation under Article 5. But this does not guarantee a collective response. "Article 5 is a mechanism with certain nuances. For example, the United States may not consider it expedient to involve all allies, which will limit NATO actions," Posternak explained.

The political scientist also drew attention to the likelihood of discussing options for security guarantees for Ukraine. According to him, it may be that the introduction of NATO military contingents without a UN mandate, which will become a completely different approach. "But there is no guarantee that Russia will not attack peacekeepers.

If you consider it a working option, it will have to change the Constitution of Ukraine, which prohibits the placement of foreign military bases on the territory of the state," - summed up Posternak. Read more about the likelihood of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine in the material "European peacekeepers in Ukraine: what they will do and where to stand.