The event is not ready for war with Russia: what showed the Shahida attack on Poland

Two days that have passed after the Russian drones on Poland are allowed to draw some conclusions from what happened. And they are not very comforting, political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko admits: NATO has shown unpreparedness for a new type of war, the political reaction of the event is also not particularly expressive . . . The attack of Russian drones on Poland is a purposeful and large -scale provocation. This is how it was evaluated in Poland and Europe.

This is not a military attack, so the 5th NATO article was not involved (the mechanisms of Article 4 of the NATO treaty were politically used). But this incident has become a serious warning and a test for Poland and NATO. What did the Kremlin check? First, the military and political reaction of Poland and NATO. Second, the US reaction to this incident.

After all, US President Trump has recently promised the new President of Poland Navrotsky to maintain security guarantees for Poland by the United States. Third, this incident was to be a reason for the Russian IPSO (information and psychological special operation) in the Polish information space, provoking a new wave of anti-Ukrainian and anti-war sentiment in Poland. In the end, it was a demonstration of force on the part of Russia.

Like, we are not afraid of NATO, nor the US or even more Poland. We do what we want. To put it mildly, ambiguously. The military reaction was, including NATO. Finally, Russian drones began to knock down, not to close their eyes to NATO's airspace. That is, NATO military mechanisms worked. But their effectiveness raised many questions. As it turned out, NATO is not ready for such group attacks of military drones.

And it is only an invasion of two dozen drones, not hundreds of military drones who regularly attack Ukraine. When a relatively inexpensive Russian drone is beaten by a rocket, the cost of which is hundreds of thousands of dollars, it is not quite adequate (and it seems that most drones have not knocked down). We, by the way, took place three years ago because of this problem. And NATO is still not ready for it. The NATO air defense system was not ready to combat group drones.

With the political reaction of questions even more. The diagnosis in Poland and NATO made the right one, but the reaction to this incident was still too slow and too cautious. And on the part of the United States there is no clear and tangible reaction to this incident at all. The strange post of Trump on the social network can hardly be considered such a reaction.

The air incident with Russian drones in Poland was used by Russia to attempt to inject anti -Ukrainian and anti -war sentiment in Poland. In Russia, it was stated that Ukraine is guilty of Ukraine (they say, this is a Ukrainian system of radio electronic struggle rejected Russian drones and sent them to Poland). Hundreds, if not thousands of Russian bots have split this topic in the information space of Poland.

There were "useful idiots" in Poland itself (I quote Polish politicians), unfortunately, and we have begun to spread data from dubious Internet survey and spread Russian narratives aimed at strengthening Polish-Ukrainian hostility. However, the effect of this information special operation was limited. Moreover, Polish politicians (from different party camps) and millions of Poles have again realized that the main threat to Poland comes from Russia.

The growth of real threats from Russia has become more aware of many European countries, especially neighboring with Russia. First, it is necessary to strengthen your defense capability faster and more effectively, in particular, to create an echelorated air defense system ready for reflection and rocket attacks and mass attacks of military drones. The most optimal option if Ukraine is integrated into this system (at least in the future, and now at least partially).

And it is good that they are already officially talking about. On September 11, President Volodymyr Zelensky, during a briefing with Finland President Alexander Stubb, said that Ukrainian experience and resources should become part of the European Air Defense System to protect borders from Russia and Belarus.

It is also necessary to prepare NATO military and political response protocols to various forms of violation of NATO airspace by Russia (from single provocative violations to real NATO military attacks). Secondly, NATO troops should not close their eyes to NATO airspace, but immediately knock down Russian drones and missiles, including in Ukraine, in regions border with NATO countries.

And finally, it is necessary to strictly warn Russia that it is unacceptable to attack Ukrainian territories bordering NATO countries. NATO should demonstrate Russia's strength and determination. Otherwise, it will not be just a repetition of the incident that happened to the arrival of Russian drones to Poland. There will be a risk of real military attacks in Russia, including hybrid, on separate military facilities in NATO countries.