The following victims are Estonia or Latvia. How can Putin's western blackmail develop
"Russia will never start war with Ukraine!" He repeated almost until the invasion of two years ago. Putin's annual address to the situation in Russia last week was no different in this sense. (Moscow "not the one who started the war in the Donbass," the Kremlin owner said).
However, in two hours and almost 10,000 words-fantasms, arrogant chatter, great complacent and incredible hypocrisy, some of the said he sounded accurate-and very disturbing-reflecting his real intention Strategic nuclear weapons, unless the event helps to resolve the war in Ukraine under Russia. This is not the first time Putin resorts to nuclear blackmail.
In his address to Russia in 2018, he demonstrated all kinds of new nuclear weapons - and this time he went the same list to confirm that almost all of them were deployed or planned for deployment.
Among them is the world's most difficult intercontinental Sarmat ballistic missile; hypersonic ballistic missile of aerial base "Dagious"; Giant Poseidon nuclear torpedo; hypersonic "glider block" with a nuclear warhead "Avangard"; And, the most apocalyptic of all, the winged "Petrel" with a nuclear installation, which can theoretically remain in the air indefinitely (and which Western experts call "flying Chernobyl").
However, in his rhetoric there is a little new - he has never resorted to nuclear threat not only to intimidate the event, but also to get compensation for the service.
In exchange for the fact that Russia will remain within the framework of the regime of weapons control (among other things, the US-Russian new Treaty for SNO, which expires in two years), Putin demanded that "important issues of safety and stability, which are crucial For the entire planet ", they discussed" within the same common package "as" all aspects that are directly related to Russia's security.
" Are the United States really hope to discuss "strategic stability issues" with Moscow and at the same time seek "strategically defeat Russia on the battlefield"? Putin asked rhetorically. He did not mention Ukraine, but it was not necessary: the Kremlin constantly argued that in Ukraine he was running indirect war with America. The reason for the strategy of the Russian dictator is easy to understand.
Despite the endless praise of Putin, the voracious mole of war is buried in the reserves of money and people with the Kremlin. The war costs Russia about $ 300 million a day, and every six months killed or injured 50,000 soldiers. And despite all the irregularities and fluctuations in the US and Europe, whose total gross domestic product is almost 40 times higher than Russia's GDP, Ukraine and the event can be a dubious prospect for Russia for many years. So - signal nuclear weapons.
This time, the blackmail will work hard: although the White House can be alarmed by the prospect of withdrawal of Russia from a new SNO contract, it is not going to stop its assistance to Ukraine. But as Russia immerses deeper into the bloody mire, Putin can dramatically increase the rates in relations with the West by nuclear confrontation.
One way to arrange this horror would be an invasion of a small country on the Eastern Flanging, the capture of part of its territory by lightning blow and the threat to solve a nuclear war if America is in defense of the Allies in accordance with Article 5 of the Alliance Article. The most likely goals are Estonia or Latvia with their significant population of ethnic Russians in the Narvsk and Latgal regions that Putin may be called "liberation", following the example of Donetsk and Lugansk.
The Kremlin will then declare passionate lands part of Russia and, therefore, they will be subject to Article 27 of the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation, in which the government reserves the right to use nuclear weapons when "the very existence of the state is threatened. " Of course, it is Putin, and only Putin, will determine the scale of such a threat.
And while the event will consider the terrible choice between Armageddon and surrender, Putin will propose to "move away from the edge" and agree on "comprehensive settlement", which will include the winning "peace" of Russia in Ukraine. Now the event is finally aware of the possibility of Russian aggression against NATO country - but such an attack, according to its forecasts, will only happen in a few years.