Putin wants a gift for May 9: where to wait for a blow to the Russian Federation and whether the boiler is possible under the estuary
The reason is not in the situation on the front - it is sad in March for the enemy. And not in the sudden reserves they found - nothing suddenly found. The reasons are only political. But for Putin they are in the first place. The Russian dictator perceives the overall picture in pieces. That is this specific episode of war on such a scale in 2026 they will not pull. So, in the fall, serious negotiations that need a trump card.
The bunker believes that in half a year, his army is able to cause serious damage to the Armed Forces, occupy large territories and make it possible to dictate the conditions. It is unrealistic, but it will require results at any cost. But it will be a summer campaign by autumn, and there is another deadline. May 9. The grandfathers fought, a parade of victory and mass festivities. In the binding to the sacred date Putin is a great commander and winner of all in the world.
You will not transfer in the summer, here you need to give a bright and understandable result for this month. From "When" they decided. With "like" - it is also clear. There are certain reserves that they have saved in the last months in the rear. In any case, one of the commanders of the third assault spoke about three such divisions, and I am inclined to believe in combat, not sofa. Will find.
The king needs a victory? The Institute of War Study already writes that in the Liman direction they gathered troops and proved the advantage in live force to ten times. In the general canvas, information enters logically. Although I do not believe in the number. The last question is "where"? The most perspective and promising option for them is the Liman direction. Khortytsia has already been talking about the intensification of hostilities. True there are nuances.
The invaders there are good "burst out" from the third assault, lost some of the positions and now try to return them. Occupation or just real success in the Donetsk region as a victory until May 9 would be perfect. Moreover, it is not necessary to storm the city of the scale of Zaporozhye or Kharkiv. Here is only under the Intercession - zero. They were stuck. And a little success under Pokrovsk strategically gives nothing.
The occupation of Donbass is the capture of the agglomeration "Konstantinovka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slavic". The assault of Konstantinovka never started. Stuck on the Toretsk and Temporal Yar. And to take all these cities in turn from south to north - it will take about ten years at the current rate. A successful breakthrough in the estuary and cutting of logistics on the Kharkiv - Slavyansk highway is a very strong course. This is not a boiler in fact, but a logistics boiler.
The only weakness of this plan is too obvious. So unnoticed and suddenly - does not slip. However, it seems to me that a number of factors now coincide. May 9 - should be done beautifully, because next year there will be less reasons. Negotiations in the fall - Kremlin need strong cards. Occupation, even partial, Donetsk region - can be imagined as a "beautiful result of your".