Surrender, victory, compromise: what scenarios of war development occur after an attack on Okhmatdit
But Russia does not need peace. Russia is critical of a break and preparation for the next stage of the war. And she needs this rest on her conditions, where the main thing is the removal of sanctions (!) On July 3, 2024, the head of the Central Committee of the Russian Federation Nabiullin named the main restrictions for economic development. The main are the complexity of access to technology and "long" investments.
A little earlier, June 12, the United States announced that they were updating the sanction list. This time, nearly 300 companies and individuals were inhibited. They have a Moscow Exchange (!), As well as the National Clearing Center (NCC) and the National Settlement Depository (NRD). After the imposition of sanctions against the Moscow exchange, difficulties with the payment of Russian natural resources and other export goods began.
In particular, the imposition of sanctions on the group of the Moscow Exchange poses into question the supply of Russian food for dollars and euros. Sanctions against Mosbirgi caused problems with banks with currency swaps. And this is in addition to previously accumulated problems. Russia, insisting, needs a break. But to obtain their conditions, they raise the bet. Let me remind you that the negotiations, as the military say, "are conducted on the battlefield.
" But the terrorists are different, they negotiate, putting a gun to the head of the hostage - a child . . . Russia realizes that the Ukrainian authorities in their decisions relies on the electorate (no secret is not a secret that every week the mood of the Ukrainian people is measured). And this mood is influenced: but the front is far away, and the lack of electricity is close. Victims among children are very, very close . . . And terrorists systematically raise bid.
Initially, significant losses of Ukrainian energy were caused. As a result, then a terrorist act is a rocket strike on strategic and civilian objects. In parallel, there is a negotiation track: March 9. The Pope called on Ukraine to agree with Russia under the White Banner. April 11th. Erdogan gave Ukraine a "peace plan". In fact, the freezing plan on disadvantages to Ukraine. May 24.
"Vladimir Putin is ready to stop hostilities in Ukraine on the current front line to hold peace talks with Kiev," Reuters writes with reference to four sources in Russia. June 26. Government Bort of Russia Il-96-300U Airline "Special Summer Squad" Russia "Flew from Moscow and heads to New York. Last officials from Russia flew to the United States in June 2023. Official goals are unknown, but it was expected that it was Exchange of proposals for freezing a military conflict July.
Daytime, accelerating peace talks, initially stopping the fire, " - said Orban for the press after the bilateral negotiations with Zelensky. On July 3, Erdogan made a statement of "just peace" between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, as well as the Turkish president stated that the conflict of Russia and Ukraine can be stopped if appropriate conditions are created for this purpose. He does not specify "just peace", but . . . July 4. Putin allowed the use of Istanbul agreements on Ukraine. July 5.
Orban arrived in Moscow. Following his trips to Kiev and Moscow, Orban summarized, he realized that the positions of the parties were "very far apart. " As a result: July 8 is a terrorist act in Ukraine . . . July 9. "A rocket strike in Kiev is a testament to the need to start peace talks," said Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. He stated this on the social network Facebook. He stressed that only peace talks can prevent future destruction.
… Given this flow of events, we see how Russia tries to convey its terms through a chain of intermediaries. And in case of refusal - as a terrorist - kills children. What's next? The nervousness with which Russia operates confirms its unwillingness to delay the war and the desire of rapid settlement, shows that the strength limit ends. "Frost" is already burning. But what will be the frost formula? The formula of Russia of Russia is the fixation of borders along the existing front line.
And in parallel the implementation of "Istanbul agreements". What is essentially the surrender of Ukraine. Namely: how do these multi -polar formulas find solutions? No… if you do not raise the bet, as Russia does. There are three main scenarios in the existing situation: the adoption of the conditions of Russia. Today, the moods of Ukrainian citizens are actively measuring the willingness to forgive the authorities of Russia.
If the people show that "a thin peace is better than a good war", then Ukraine will be significantly approaching Russia's position (with the consent of the West). Namely: but despite terrorism, life with constant shutdowns, Ukrainians are not ready for this scenario from the word "completely" (try to convince me). Too many we have lost the best Ukrainians, too many questions to power, too high hatred of Russia. The adoption of such a scenario is the death of Ukraine.
It will lead to the cessation of hostilities, the return from the front of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians . . . and chaos within the country with probable revolutionary sentiment. Approval of the plan of Ukraine. Part of the plan is possible: but. No one is going to withdraw troops from Ukraine and release the territory. What is Russia's motivation before? The West showed that it is not capable of either sanctions nor military assistance to do it. Compromise.
As stated above - "negotiations are on the battlefield. " Earlier, I wrote about the West's plans to freeze the conflict as soon as possible. But not on the terms of Russia. And this means that the rate of Ukraine should appear on the part of Ukraine. And this rate has not yet been played. We have not yet introduced mobilized units in the required number. We do not yet use active F-16. We have not yet caused damage to Russia's strategic objects. We have not yet turned Crimea into an island.