Path to Peace in Ukraine: How to decipher Blinken's signals in Kiev and Putin in Beijing
Before that, he received both European leaders in Beijing - France, Germany, Spain, and US High officials. In the end, the route for the trip was determined: Paris, Belgrade, Budapest. If SI came to Serbia and Hungary as a master - China finances infrastructure in these countries, providing huge loans, then in Paris he was waiting, in fact, for negotiations, not just at a table in a mountain restaurant.
Whatever China's leader was trying to avoid meeting European leaders and not going to Brussels, Brussels came to SI in the person of the President of the European Commission Ursula von Der Lyen. They talked not only about economics and trade, but also about geopolitics, in particular, about Russia's war against Ukraine, or as they say in China - "Ukrainian crisis".
And although experts note, publicly after the Parisian business trip, nothing has changed in the issue The mouth of the Ukrainian question did not sound anything new - he reminded that China was not standing at the origins of this crisis, was not her side and did not participate in it, but behind the scenes of negotiations in Paris were discussed by the messages that Si could present Putin in Beijing. The latter planned his first visit after his election to China, May 16-17.
Europeans tried to induce China economically influence the Russian Federation. It is said that the conversation in Paris was emotional enough, which was noticed by media representatives, indicating that they saw these red and annoyed. In the end, Macron and Ursula von der Lien said: the relationship between Beijing and the European market will depend on Beijing's sanctions on the Russian Federation. "Initially, Blinken's visit to China and then - Xi Jinping to Europe.
These meetings could discuss how much the US and allies could influence China's restrictions on obtaining important technologies in the event of further support of the Russian Federation. Supports the Russian Federation, but these statements are not true. In 20 years, India could replace China, - says the chief consultant of the Center for Foreign Policy of the National Institute for Strategic Studies Ivan Us He exported 300 billion every year, in 2023 - by 3. 4 trillions.
If it is restricted, " , they were joked, we have to sleep this night - it is unlikely that Putin will send missiles to the capital. , lunch at the restaurant and play the US Secretary of Ukraine. , but also to convey the message to the Americans - they say, we make a promise, support Ukraine, as you want, it is already in relative security. Expert of the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism" Alexander Kraev says that much remained behind the scenes of negotiations in Kiev.
He is convinced, and a visit to Paris, and a visit to Kiev is a preparation for the formula of peace in Switzerland. "After a set of visits under the conditional name" China-West ", which were attached first of all the Americans and the French, they will now bring us the position of Beijing and in relation to the formula of peace, and four points of China, and partly in relation to the Washington Summit of NATO ", - he says. And the position of China should be paid attention.
"While the Americans are drawn by the horizons of the next two months, the Chinese do it with the Russians. No wonder, the classic practice of the Cold War, and now it works," adds Ukrainian Prism Council expert. While Blinken was walking in Kiev, Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow collected a suitcase for Beijing to visit a "dear friend". They planned not only negotiations in narrow and wide format, but also informal Tet-a-Tet after the concert, the Kremlin said.
"The most important thing in China has tea, especially," - quoted Putin Yuri Ushakov's assistant "Interfax". Putin and SI meetings have long become regular, and several dozen have happened. In particular, on the eve of a full -scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin also stayed in Beijing, where he spoke of "friendship without borders and cooperation without forbidden zones.
" And in practice, it worked in such a way that after the beginning of a new wave of aggression of the Russian Federation, it helps Moscow to bypass numerous sanctions, which has been said more than once in the US and in the EU.
This time, with Putin, a new defense minister Andriy Belousov, his predecessor, and now secretary of the Security Council, Sergey Shoigh, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and several other ministers, two dozen governors and heads of state -owned companies, went to China with Putin. On the eve of his visit, Putin gave a written interview to Chinese information agency Sinhua.
In it he again spoke of guarantees for Russia, complained about the sanctions entered and stated that he was ready for negotiations against Ukraine. "We want a comprehensive, stable and just settlement of this conflict with peaceful means. And open to dialogue against Ukraine, but these should be negotiations that take into account the interests of all countries involved in this conflict, including our interests," he said.
"Putin wants to understand whether China's policy will change after Blinken's visit to Beijing and SI to Europe. Russia is afraid that China can say at one point that we say we have the US and the EU where we supply goods for a trillion dollars, And these funds are very important to us, - suggests the consultant of the Center for Foreign Policy of the National Institute for Strategic Studies Ivan Us.
Experts predicted that China, for which, unlike in the Russian Federation, the European and American market is important - together 45% of all the turnover of China, while the Russian Federation - only 2% and will reduce Moscow's support. He will choose stability in exchange for not financing the war against Ukraine. "And it is noticeable that Beijing chooses his own rhetoric: diplomats have ceased to call Russians" dear friends "," allies ", and are limited by the word" partners ".
And not even" reliable partners ", as it was until February 2022. China. He demonstrates that he needs Russia, but simply as a cheap resource hub, "says Focus President of the Liberal Democratic League of Ukraine Arthur Kharitonov. Or will signal the support of the Russian Federation, building public relations not only with Moscow. But also Tehran. Experts say that after these visits the position of the world has not changed: it is not ready for the collapse of the Russian Federation.
And this fact can be repeated many times in different forums and during negotiations in different formats. No one in the countries, either a large seven, or a great twenty sees the prospects for the collapse of the Russian Federation in the sense of Ukraine. As it was with the Soviet Union or the Russian Empire. But if there is no vision of decay, there is a vision of the preservation of the Russian Federation in internationally recognized borders.
Yes, all European, American and even Asian leaders, including SI, will speak publicly, which supports Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, but in fact, they will look for a compromise on how to please Moscow. Let us mention the decision of the NATO Vilnius Summit in the summer of 2023.
At that time, Ukraine was refused political invited to membership in the Alliance, primarily through the US and Germany position and proposed the idea of creating bilateral security agreements, which have now been signed by the ninth, in particular, with the United Kingdom, France and Germany.
And these agreements refer to the promises of financial support, the provision of weapons and ammunition, the establishment of work of the defense-industrial complex, training of the Ukrainian military. That is, all that Ukraine will keep and not lose. We do not deliberately win, because the victory of the world and Ukraine, obviously, see a little differently.
World leaders are working to pursue a comprehensive policy of containment of the Russian Federation so that it could not do another wave of full -scale aggression, the level of February 2022. But if this happens suddenly after the war stopping, garants promise to carry out emergency consultations within 24 hours. In other words, these double -sized security agreements are devoted not only to the current confrontation, but also to the future, to which they hope will not come.
"I guess international partners see someone after Putin. There is a fear that Russia will break into small pieces and fear of using nuclear weapons. They do not know where nuclear weapons will find themselves, although they have the experience of collapse of a much larger monster - the USSR," says focus Political scientist Oleg Lisny.
And all that remains is to think about the conditions of peace negotiations: termination of hostilities, fixation of a conditional line of demarcation, acceptance of temporarily occupied territories. Despite Putin's statements about peaceful negotiations, he defines them as a surrender of Ukraine, the Russian Federation does not see the sense of stopping the war.
And that is why Europeans tried to say si so that he conveyed the Russian Federation that the capitulations could not be, there may be a long pause called truce. It is already known that during a press conference in Beijing, Xi Jinping stated that China and Russia were insisting on a "political solution" of war in Ukraine. Politically is with the involvement of the Russian Federation in negotiations. As we know, this position is radically different from the position of Ukraine.
Ukraine has stated that it would not speak with Putin's authorities and the Kremlin's current owner. "Certainly, China will insist that Russia be one of the sides of negotiations in Switzerland. But Ukraine is critical against it. It may be attached at a later stage," the Us thinks. "And partners will demand it from Ukraine by agreements with China.
But the idea is that the main messages should be made at the Summit of Peace in June, with the involvement of China and other countries of the global south, and then their implementation will begin. . I, as a person who often communicates with Russian experts on Arabic television, I remember this period when the Russians could not answer how they treat this meeting because they could not criticize it - there was a messenger of Beijing.