Rocket terror - Russian plans for July: what the enemy conceived and how the tactics of blows have changed

Military observer Alexander Kovalenko summarizes the Russian rocket terror in June. According to his observations, shelling was not so massive, but the enemy became more common, and "calibra" returned. In June 2024, the Russian invaders continued the tactics of combined strikes in the territory of Ukraine, the main goals of which were the objects of power systems, airfields and logistics. But the tactic of the enemy in June was increased by increased shocks to reduce the ammunition.

But the winged rockets of the Caliber Maritime Base Rockets were confidently returned to the nomenclature. During June 2024, Russian invaders continued the practice of regular systemic combined and single rocket strokes in Ukraine. The main component of the latter will always remain X-59/69 missiles, as well as 9m723/728 OTC "Iskander-M"/KN-23.

But the main component of combined blows is X-101/555, as well as the winged maritime base missiles "Caliber", which Russian occupation troops (ROV) again began to be used systematically after a long pause. In just a month, the following number of missiles were used: most often such blows were suffered by Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa and Khmelnitsky regions. It draws attention to the reduction of the overall ammunition by systemic night blows.

Yes, the most massive in June was on the night of June 1: at the same time one of the largest in June the number of drones-Kamikadze Shahd-131/136, namely 47 (46, was shot) was launched. But after this impact, the mole began to use a much smaller ammunition, but more often - with a period of 2-5 days. That is, without waiting one and a half to two weeks for the accumulation of BC. It was very similar to changing tactics in May - June 2023.

I would like to remind that then the command of the Russian occupation troops departed from the practice of massive blows of 50-70 rockets at a time (but about every one and a half to two weeks) to the strikes of limited BCs of 15-30 missiles (but with pauses in a few days). In June 2024, even these figures were reduced. After June 1, with pauses in 2-5 days, night rocket strokes were made in the amount of more than 15 rockets, and most often - less than 10 different types.

That is not limited, but, in fact, a minimal ammunition. It is noteworthy that in June, Russian invaders used almost the number of missiles of each type that (according to open data) they can produce within a month. These indicators also correspond to May. For example, the same 9M723 Iskander-M OTRC-16 missiles in June and 16 missiles in May. Unfortunately, in both cases with zero, because they are used in areas where there is no air defense capable of intercepting them, namely Patriot or SAMP/T.

In addition to increasing night shocks with minimal ammunition, there are no significant changes in the tactics of moles. The main goals have not changed - the power system, aerodromes and logistics. Secondary goals are terror of the population, strokes on civilians, including construction. The main rocket component for combined blows will always remain X-101/555, which are additionally exacerbated by "caliber".

And the latter have now accumulated in the Russian occupation troops much more than X-101/555. The number of means of damage is the maritime component within the framework of the rocket terror of Ukraine. In June, 328 Dronov-Kamikadze was launched in Ukraine, of which 311 were shot down! In fact, last month, only 5% of Russia-launched by Iranian Shahd-131/136 reached their goal.

Also, June, like May, did not become a record month by the number of drones used, as it was in December 2023, when the invaders used 625 "Shahanedov", or in March 2024-603 units. Although in the first week of June there was a feeling that the invaders could reach a record figure, as they launched as of June 7 - 171/158 of Shahd drones. This amount clearly hinted at an extremely active month, if not to say more, but not.

And as a result, 328 Shahd drones were used in June with a peak raid on June 7 - 53/48. Therefore, June 2024 is no different in the intensity of the use of Shahd drones from the average months, with an average coating of 350 units. +/- 10%.

The goals of the blows are invariably identical to the rocket strokes, but the Shahanedov components were concentrated mostly on the strokes of the west of Ukraine, Khmelnitsky region, although most of them were beaten at the stage of spanning through the southern, central and eastern regions.

In June, the Russian occupation troops did not change their main goal - blows to Ukrainian energy, aerodromes and logistics, but quantitative intensity clearly decreased due to the increased frequency of impact. The tactics of application of X-59/69, as well as 9m723/9m728 OTRC "Iskander-M/K" have not changed.

While X-59/69, in more than 50% of cases, the air defense agents that are in the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces, 9m723/9m728 of the Iskander-M/K OTRC have significantly, I would even say, critically less than Especially the ballistic component. The problem remains unchanged as its solution is exclusively Patriot and SAMP/T.

On the other hand, the unchanged average intensity of rocket strokes and plaque drones-Kamikadze makes it possible to claim that the production of the first in Russia is in a state of stagnation without any quantitative and qualitative changes, and the second-completely and completely continues to depend on deliveries from Iran, which recently also have some restrictions.