The chances are small: the NBU first predicted the rapid end of the war with Russia

According to the NBU, the full -scale war with Russia greatly inhibits Ukraine's economic development. However, you do not have to count on the fast end of hostilities. For the first time, the National Bank of Ukraine presented the probability of a rapid completion of active fighting. The data was published in the inflationary report for January 2025. The NBU believes that the probability of rapid completion of active battles in Ukraine is low and is less than 15%.

There are also expectations of the rapid start of the implementation of a large -scale restoration plan. The most likely scenario in the range of 25-50% is the escalation of hostilities, accompanied by the destruction of production facilities and a shortage of electricity. The above threats will need an increase in budget expenditures, economists indicate. Military risks for Ukraine are preserved against the background of geopolitical tensions in the world.

However, there is an option that the efforts of the international community to achieve just and long peace for Ukraine are being implemented in the near future, according to the report. The full -scale war with Russia is recognized as the main risk to increase the inflation rate and reduce Ukraine's economic development. "Russian aggression causes the risks of further reduction of economic potential, in particular due to loss of people, territories and production.

The speed of returning the economy to normal conditions of functioning will depend on the nature and duration of hostilities," the NBU experts summed up. We will remind, the Romanian politician and presidential candidate Cellene Georgescu considers Ukraine a "fictional state" and is confident in its inevitable section. At the same time, Ukrainian men do not go to work for enterprises because of the actions of the CCC employees and mobilization.