The front is shifting to the West: how Russia is getting closer to NATO's borders

Share: Russia moves to a new stage of pressure on Europe. Military activity is increasing near NATO's borders, and incidents from Estonia to France are becoming more frequent. Against this backdrop, Finland's defense minister is warning of a "second phase of aggression" by the Kremlin, while efforts are being made at NATO headquarters to reassure allies. Focus found out what this signal from the North really means.

Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkanen said that Russia is building up troops near the borders of the EU and is preparing for the second phase of aggression. At the NATO meeting in Brussels, the minister noted: Russia is modernizing the army and accumulating forces near the borders, creating real risks for the Alliance. Hyakkanen emphasized the need to strengthen NATO due to the escalation of the Russian Federation, which will not stop in Ukraine.

This is a signal of Moscow's long-term strategy against Europe. In general, the statement reflects the anxiety of Northern Europe regarding the hybrid threats of the Russian Federation. Also, Finland will join the PURL program with military assistance to Ukraine. A new support package from Helsinki will be announced this week.

Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, after a meeting of defense ministers in Brussels, urged to trust the Western military and not to overestimate the Russians, reports Clash Report. "Our armies have the best equipment, are well trained, with 50-70 years of experience. We know the business, so don't take the Russian Federation too seriously," he said. At the same time, according to the NATO Secretary General, the Alliance must prepare for any aggression scenarios.

"If a dictator donates a million for meager gains in Ukraine — less than 1% of the territory — he can go against NATO. It is not known whether he will, but we are ready," Rütte emphasized. This happened against the background of the fact that incidents with Russian armed forces near NATO's borders continue. In particular, on the night of October 11, the police and border guard department of Estonia temporarily blocked the road from Vyarska to Saatse in the area of ​​the "Saatse boot".

The reason is that Estonian border guards recorded the movement of Russian military formations patrolling or maneuvering with weapons. In this regard, the Estonian authorities closed the border in this place until October 14 in order to avoid incidents. Russia denies the anomalies, calling them routine exercises, but Estonian sources see it as an attempt at pressure or intelligence.

The "Saatse Boot" is a vulnerable point on the Estonian border, where the road passes through Russian territory for 800 meters, and such actions could be a test of NATO's response. The second provocation is maritime: on October 13, the Russian diesel-electric submarine B-261 "Novorossiysk" surfaced off the coast of Brittany, France, in the Bay of Biscay. The official reason is a technical failure in the fuel system, which created a risk of explosion due to leakage or overheating.

The boat, armed with Kalibr cruise missiles, is part of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, but was spotted in the Atlantic — possibly on maneuvers or a reconnaissance mission. A French Navy frigate immediately took it under surveillance, coordinating with NATO. Alliance Command in X confirmed the incident, stressing vigilance in the Atlantic. "We are monitoring the situation, ensuring the safety of our allies," the NATO press service noted.

Military expert Oleg Zhdanov denies that the second phase of the Russian aggression against NATO has already begun. In his opinion, Russia has entered the initial, so-called zero phase of the conflict. Western experts and NATO recognize this phase as preparatory. It consists in the formation of public opinion about the invincibility of Russia, which is allegedly capable of defeating anyone, and that resistance to it is futile.

Zhdanov sees this as a threat: if the zero phase succeeds, further stages of escalation will become inevitable. The Russians are conducting a large-scale information campaign through various media, bloggers, mass media where they have connections, invested funds or bought journalists. "Added is the work of an agent network that engages in subversive actions: sabotage, arson, threats to politicians.

The goal is to convince that aid to Ukraine is in vain, it is just a waste of citizens' taxes in Western countries, and Russia cannot be defeated," the expert tells Focus. According to Zhdanov, NATO is not ready to face this phase. Mark Rutte's recent performances have disappointed the expert. Rutte launched a counter-campaign downplaying the threat.

"The NATO Secretary General told a press conference after a meeting with NATO defense ministers in Brussels that Russia is weak, there is no need to prepare for a confrontation, it can be easily defeated. This is a problem, because it seems that the US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, with his pro-Russian views in the administration, like a weather vane, is adapting to Trump. Trump talked about peace through strength, and everyone talked about massive a weapon for Ukraine that shocks the enemy.

But Hegset acts militarily and harshly, and people around say: why should we tremble before Russia?" - added the expert. According to Zhdanov, individual NATO countries understand the situation and will continue their support, forming a coalition that is gaining momentum. However, the leadership of the Alliance shows a weak position, which is a mistake. We will remind that unknown drones were spotted over the military base in Marne, France.