Peacemakers will not help: what Ukraine needs to restrain the offensive of the Russian Federation
"From all Europeans? 200 thousand is a minimum. It's a minimum, otherwise it is nothing," said Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This number of military is approximately equal to the number of the French army, which is the largest in Europe. While on paper, European allies on NATO have 1. 9 million soldiers to confront the Russian Federation, but in the reality of the country, the EU will fight for sending more than 300,000 fighters in the conflict zone.
Political scientist Igor Reityrovich believes that the figure of 200 thousand peacekeepers is a very big maximum. In conversation with focus, he noted that representatives of other countries made calculations, which referred to peacemakers in the amount of 45 to 150 thousand people. "It should be borne in mind that in the first stage it may be more and then there may be some changes, a decrease in the number of peacekeepers.
As for me, the President of Ukraine tried to raise the rates as much as possible, he voiced some upper limit, perhaps calculating that if that The issue will really be discussed, it can be reduced to some more or less acceptable level, "said Igor Reityrovich. According to him, given the front line of the front, tens of thousands of soldiers are needed, as it cannot be a "police mission" that will patrol the hypothetical future line of demarcation.
Instead, you need to control everything that happens there. There are several options for peacekeepers in Ukraine, the political scientist continues. In particular, they may be dislocated on the demarcation line in certain camps, control and service. He recalled that earlier the media wrote about the option when strongholds will be created on the demarcation line, but most of the army would be in depth, but the fighters will be ready for deployment in the event of aggression.
"Most likely, it can be a story as on the line of demarcation between North and South Korea. The troops are stationed there, fortifications, and are ready to reflect the attack of the other party," he is convinced. Reitrovich reported that the presence of peacekeepers in Ukraine should reduce the risk of escalation. So Russia should understand that the attack on Ukraine will be considered an attack on the countries that have sent peacekeepers.
"According to all the canons of peacekeeping missions, they are introduced to divide the warring parties, to act as a kind of shield, which will not make any provocation," the political scientist said. In the case of peacekeepers from NATO countries, the risk of further escalation becomes almost zero, he said, but only if Putin does not decide to fight with the Alliance.
The political scientist noted that any country can be sent to Ukraine potentially if it is a mission under the auspices of the UN. However, Ukraine has the position that peacekeepers should only be representatives of those countries who did not support the Russian Federation in aggression and did not have partnerships with it. This is how the EU countries, NATO. "And honestly, some other option is unlikely to be implemented because Ukraine will not go to it.
Although Russia will try to discuss, impose any Belarus, Chinese or someone else, but this option will not work, but this option will not work. . These are the countries that are the aggressor, and who was attacked. They said that they may be interested in such a mission, and all these countries are NATO members, "Reitrovich explained. Military analyst, deputy director of the Ukrainian "Army Research Center, Conversion and Disarmament" Mikhail Samus is convinced that no one will give peacekeepers.
After all, there should be the consent of the two sides of their placement. In particular, peacekeepers can introduce those countries or organizations that will take responsibility, sign an appropriate agreement with Ukraine and the Russian Federation on the introduction of troops into the relevant areas. "Therefore, this does not mean that we will give us troops.
It is a peacekeeping mission that will not act for Ukraine, but in order to prevent the restoration of hostilities," said focus Michael Samus. He noted that there was a desire of the Ukrainian side for peacekeepers, their numbers, while the Russian Federation is against it. According to the analyst, the only safety guarantee for Ukraine and the prevention of new escalation is the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces. It is about creating a rocket and aviation shield.
While the number of personnel is not the main one, because the key issue is in the strength of restraint. This should be the missile potential, which, for example, within an hour would allow you to destroy several hundred objects in the Russian Federation. "If Russia restores hostilities, Ukraine makes a rocket strike that disrupts most important objects in the Russian Federation, in any case, the European part. It is possible to do it, Ukraine is moving very quickly," Samus explained.
According to him, Ukraine has winged missiles, it is necessary to increase their production by tens of thousands a year, and ballistic should be produced in hundreds a year. The drone potential and aviation should also grow constantly. "Ukraine should have an advantage over Russia in aviation. If this is, then it does not matter how much we will have peacekeepers here or whether they will not be at all.
It is possible to put a monitoring mission that will only control the violation of the ceasefire regime," he said. The analyst believes that no peace treaties will be signed between Ukraine and Russia. Instead, there will be only a ceasefire agreement, after which a long diplomatic process will begin until Putin dies. In the new conditions with the new Russian regime, or several, if the Russian Federation collapses, they will resolve the issue of liberation of the Ukrainian territory.