Prolonged War: The expert told how many years in Ukraine there will be enough resources
He noted that the war can last ten years if it continues in the format of low -intensity military conflict, as it was from 2014 to 2022. However, a large -scale war, in a format as it will happen now, cannot last such a long period of time. "At this intensity of war we simply do not have enough internal resources. First of all, demographic resources and economic resources, too. We have no for another ten years," said Alexei Kushch.
According to him, the mobilization resource is currently on the verge, but that does not mean that it will end tomorrow. However, new and new sections of the population may be involved in the war, including those that are not ready for hostilities. The bush stressed that people will gradually "break away from the real sector of the economy", which can lead to negative consequences.
The economist compares the mobilization resource with the operation of the engine, which has a planned mode of operation, the ability to work at high speed and work in critical condition. "According to my estimates, the mobilization resource in the first two years of the war will be more or less planned. And for the third year, its use will take place at increased revolutions close to the emergency, and with the fourth year it can become critical," he explained.
The bush noted that it was then that systemic failures should be expected, since the critical regime is characterized by the fact that it is impossible to predict in advance.
Alexei Kush believes that depending on the format of the war, there are three scenarios of events, namely: Recall that on December 25, the fighter of the third separate assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the instructor of the "Military School of Commanders named after Colonel Yevgeny Konovalets" with the call sign "Maktivish" told, said What can become critical every day for Ukraine.