Putin's arrest in Mongolia. Why Ulan Bator is not performing the Roman Statute

It was unreasonable to expect Putin's arrest from Mongolia, despite her belonging to the Roman Treaty, blogger Yuri Bogdanov says. Mongolia simply depends entirely on Russia and China and in conflict with them has no chance. Putin will come to Mongolia and will not be arrested there. Why? Mongolia ratified the Roman Statute. The International Criminal Court is a judge from Mongolia, one of 18. The ISS issued a warrant for Putin's arrest in March 2023.

And before that Putin avoided visits to any country that ratified the Roman Statute. But Mongolia's power is not going to arrest him during a visit on September 3 and sent to the Hague. Is this betrayal? Undoubtedly. Because it is a precedent. Was the Mongolia's government a choice? No. There was no. If Russia wanted a demonstration case and China supported - everything, your options are over. If you are Mongolia.

Why? Because Mongolia, a country with a scanty population, a vast territory (3 million people in 2. 5 Ukraine in area), huge natural resources and almost zero military potential, cautiously clamped between China and Russia. In addition, the only reason why Mongolia generally retained independence after 1949 (she gained independence after the Xinhai Revolution) - its buffer status between the USSR (now Russia) and China.

The mutual restraint of the two great powers guaranteed the relative independence of Mongolia. After 1991, China received its economic expansion. Which has brought almost to the absolute. Since 2012, the Mongolia government has been able to reduce China's dependence from 82% to 65% of foreign trade. In Russia there are about 20+%. In China and Russia, there is also a lion's share of investment. Trade in South Korea, Japan and so on began to intensify.

But how? That's right, through the territory of China and Russia. Russia and Mongolia cooperate in energy, in infrastructure projects, and Mongolia, although it is democracy, democracy is extremely dependent on two dictatorships nearby. And imagine: they arrested Putin. Pressure from Russia. Pressure from China. If Russia decides (and there is no reason to think that it would not decide) to exert military pressure - Mongolia has a chance in Mongolia.

Even if she had partners, ready to supply weapons, it is physically not possible. International policy is much more about circumstances and opportunities than desires and principles. Mongolia does not have the opportunity to arrest a military criminal if he is a Russian president or China's chairman, without catastrophic consequences for himself. Or even just an important person in their management system.

And when Mongolia ratified the Roman Statute, her politicians could hardly imagine that he would be about the president of one of their two neighbors. Which are still part of the UN Security Council. And all, it is not possible to guarantee the execution of the agreement - there is no execution. Yes, it is better to be rich and healthy than poor and sick. But sometimes you have to choose between the situation of Ukraine and the situation of Mongolia. We were more fortunate.

At least with geography and historical context as of 24. 02. 2022. In most of the western and southwestern border, we have difficult neighbors, but they are inscribed in the system of adequate world. We have the opportunity to build weapons and assistance logistics. We have enough population (for all demographic hell) to be able to resist. And we do not need to balance between the two countries, each of which can easily absorb us.