The war of great powers is ripe. Does this mean the end of the submarine era?
The US Armed Forces, which are largely dependent on aircraft carriers, now deal with increased threat from opposition / objections to access (A2 / AD). Focus has translated Brandon J. Weikhert's article about why the submarine epoch could reach the end. The face of the war may change, but its basic principles remain unchanged. However, the inability to adapt to the changing nature of the conflict can lead to defeat. After the Cold War, the United States' armed forces relaxed.
They kept for the tactics and equipment of the previous era for too long. Aircraft carriers are quickly obsolete in the era of counteraction systems/objection of access (A2/AD). If the A2/AD threat is not overcome, deck aircraft carriers may be absolutely useless. An alternative form of power is a submarine. The United States Navy does not have enough submarine to withstand a prolonged conflict with the closest rival, such as China.
In this case, the defensive industrial base of the country breathes incense. However, investments in the construction of new submarines were still taking place. Virginia submarine is one of the best new classes in the US Navy. Unfortunately, due to budget restrictions and a weak defense-industrial base of America, Virginia Submarinia will not be enough in the event of a conflict between the great powers.
Despite all the fears of submarine fans, such as the reason that the Navy does not pay due attention to this most important platform for the promotion of force, it is likely that, like its car cousins, the submarine will soon be outdated. This is due to the emergence of non -trapped submarines (UUV). While unmanned aircraft (UAVs) attract all the attention of the press, UUV is increasingly found in the maritime sphere. Moreover, they are the latest threat that has virtually no protection.
Over time, the leading countries of the world will expand the capabilities of their UUV arsenals. Non -fabric maneuver devices, it is difficult to track, and they can be deployed so that large crew vessels are almost impossible to evade them.
You will not be envied by submarines, because this threat of UUV is combined with the growing capabilities of artificial intelligence, as well as with arsenal group of advanced satellites, such as Chinese Project "Guanganlan" (which means "large waves") that uses complex multicolored dispers the movement of submarines underwater by observing the movement of waves.
Many fear that a creepy green laser show over Hawaii, which was recorded by a Japanese research group on January 28, 2023, was one of these laser satellites to track the submarines. As for artificial intelligence, the history of the American satellite, managed by artificial intelligence, which was able to identify and track hundreds of "hidden vessels" based on information collected by various satellites about the Earth's Oceans.
The same methods can be used by advanced armies, such as Russian or Chinese, to find and destroy US submarines. According to one of the studies, given the above technological achievements by 2050, the entire concept of crew submarines is outdated. But, of course, no one knows what awaits us in the future. What can be said for sure that in the 2020s the war of great powers was rising. The United States is not in the most favorable strategic position.
The submarines are of great importance today and may be decisive in any conflict of the great powers, especially with China through Taiwan. However, the fans of submarines, which belongs to the author of these lines, should be aware that the development of unmanned technologies or the improvement of artificial intelligence and satellite-spy satellites will sooner or later force US military planners to refuse to use submarines in their usual form.
But whatever machine apocalypse does not have on the horizon, it has not yet come. While UUV, AI and laser satellite tracking for submarines will not become reliable and familiar, American submarines should not be relying on a well -deserved pension. To this day, American submarines should remain in order. Brandon J. Weikhert is a national security analyst, a former Congress employee and a geopolitical analyst who writes for The Washington Times, Asia Times and The-Pipeline.