Pause before the attack: When Russia is preparing a new massive blow to Ukraine
Then on the night of July 12, the Russian army used 26 winged missiles and 597 drones, most of which are "Shahda". More than 20 missiles and the overwhelming amount of shock drones were disposed of the air defense. According to the military-political observer of the "Information Resistance" group Alexander Kovalenko should be expected in the near future, which will probably be combined in nature.
This means that the enemy can attract both unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and rocket means, using them in combination to achieve maximum effect. Kovalenko noted that drones-Kamikadze played a major role in such attacks, including "Shahda", as well as other types of UAVs, such as "Herbers" and their modifications or analogues. These drones have been used repeatedly for Ukrainian infrastructure attacks, and their use has become part of the enemy's tactics.
These drones are relatively cheap in production, which allows the opponent to accumulate them in large quantities and use for massive attacks. In addition, a combination of drones and rockets creates additional challenges for the Ukrainian air defense system, as different types of goals require different approaches to their disposal.
"Given the current production capacity of the enemy, as well as the relatively low intensity of drones over the last two days, it can be assumed that at the moment an enemy has accumulated a significant arsenal. I evaluate the number of drones available for use in more than 500 units. As for rocket strokes, the expert also indicates a high probability of recovery.
The last massive rocket strike was recorded about a week ago, July 12, when, according to preliminary data, 26 missiles were used, including rockets of X-101. At present, the enemy is able to use not only aviation but also marine and land platforms to the task of combined rocket strokes. This significantly complicates the forecasting and preparation for such attacks, as the enemy can attract different types of weapons at the same time.
According to the co -founder and executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation Dmitry Zhmayl, this week Russia uses 140 drones a day, which is less than 30 drones than last weeks. This allowed Russia to accumulate about 200 "Shahmed" and "deception", which can be assigned for both subsequent attacks and replenishment of reserves. According to the expert, the army of the Russian Federation in the middle of June had about 6 thousand "Shahaned" in reserves.
"Also, over the next six months, the Russian Federation plans to increase the production of its drones by about 10%, in the framework of which in particular the process of building the economic zone" Alabuga "is taking place. The forces of defense of Ukraine, meanwhile, continue to strike a long-range impact on the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation, which, including in April, is the main purpose of our forces.
Regarding the possible goals of attacks, Kovalenko notes that they can be quite diverse. The enemy is not limited to specific objects, but rather seeks to cause maximum harm, attacking both military and civilian objects. However, given the pause in the active actions observed recently, the expert suggests that one of the priority goals can be the capital of Ukraine - Kiev.
This is due to its strategic and symbolic meaning, as well as the enemy's desire to strike key administrative and logistics centers. According to Zhmaylo, a certain "pause" is currently traced in massive air attacks, which is most likely caused by the arrival of a special representative of the United States on Ukraine and Russia Kit Kelloga and accordingly fears of the Russian side, pause was used by the enemy for partial restoration of reserves that will be involved in future attacks.
Among the goals of attacks, the expert calls both the capital and other regions of Ukraine. We will remind, Focus wrote that Donald Trump's announcement of the transfer of 17 Patriot systems became a signal for two addressees: Ukraine - as a confirmation of strategic partnership, Russia - as a warning about the consequences of rocket terror. Focus also reported that the production of percussion drones in Russia has increased 5. 5 times compared to 2024.