Putin is waiting for the winter to plan a new phase of war in Ukraine - isw

As a result of the cold season, the Kremlin head, according to analysts, will decide whether a new batch of mobilized in battle will send. Russian President Vladimir Putin will wait for the winter, hoping that in 2023 the level of support of Ukraine will decrease in the European Union. This is stated in the new report of the ISW War Study of October 30.

According to analysts, by the end of this year, Vladimir Putin will carry out ordinary military operations in Ukraine to keep the occupied territories, conquer new regions and create conditions that may lead to a decrease in the level of support of Kiev by the EU countries. ISW notes that the Kremlin head has not abandoned its plans for the capture of a neighboring state.

"Putin is unlikely to go to escalation, using tactical nuclear weapons, unless only the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is suddenly collapsed and will not allow the Ukrainian troops to move uncontrollably with all the theater of hostilities. This situation is possible but unlikely. Putin will not seek a direct military conflict.

The Kremlin's head will probably continue to hint at the possibility of using Russia's tactical nuclear weapons and NATO attacks as part of his attempt to break the will of the West continue Ukraine, "the US experts said. According to analysts, Vladimir Putin's strategy on Ukraine provides for military operations in the conditions of harsh winter, which can not only bring success of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, but also break the will of the European Union.

The ISW report also stated that limiting energy supply to Europe, the Kremlin expects that the EU population will put pressure on its governments, against which the European authorities will accept Moscow's demands to stop supplying weapons and other forms of support for Ukraine. "European leaders are ready for the pressure they are likely to face at the beginning of the cold season. Putin may hope that they will not be able to withstand this pressure throughout the winter.

In the spring of 2023, Putin will be able to observe the impact of winter on the will of Europeans and To decide whether to send their recruits to battle or to choose another way to solve this problem, " - summed up analysts in their report. It should be noted that earlier in the office of the President of Ukraine was called five steps that will help Kiev win in a full -scale war against Russia.