Putin's threats: from hybrid manifestations to a real offensive to NATO countries
"We had some disputes with them? All controversy, in particular, territorial since the middle of the twentieth century, have long been resolved," Putin said, remembering Finland. "There were no problems. Now, because we will create a Leningrad military district and focus there a certain number of military units.
" This statement was made not only against the backdrop of increasing tensions between two neighboring countries as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and Finland's further decision to join NATO, but also through the Migrane crisis - Finland was forced to close its border from the Russian Federation through the flow of illegals trying Get this northern country in search of asylum.
Finland has repeatedly noted that the Russian authorities deliberately encouraged migrants to go to the country to destabilize the situation. The Kremlin's master also mentioned US President Joe Baiden's statements, who had previously stated that Russia would attack US Allies on NATO if it wins in Ukraine. "This is full of nonsense, and I think that President Biden understands it," Putin said.
"Russia has no reasons, interests, geopolitical interests, no economic, no political or military fighting with NATO countries. " Experts say that the Russian president's statements mention such topics in public - his threats indicate that he still believes that the event is weaker in relation to the Russian Federation. He only decided to attack Ukraine because he was convinced of the weakness of NATO without feeling the threat from his part.
In addition, Putin is so responsible for comments about the likely difficulties with the support agreements, in particular, the military. "Putin's assurance of his peaceful intentions about NATO sounds empty in the context of threats that he and Kremlin experts have recently put forward NATO member states," say analysts of the American Institute for War (ISW).
-These threats are part of ancient narratives of Russia about Russia NATO attacks preceding Finland's application and admission to the Alliance on April 4. Undoubtedly, Russian experts do not pose a military threat to NATO countries, but they are an important context for Putin's efforts to reassure the situation during his interview on December 17.
" At the beginning of a full -scale invasion of Ukraine, on a possible attack on NATO countries, especially the Baltic countries and Poland repeatedly declared Western analysts and politicians. It was also discussed in the statements of Russian officials of different levels, in particular, said Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov. Nuclear threats sounded from the mouth of the Deputy President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev - he promised to arrange a "nuclear Armageddon".
In such statements, the Russians rely on their demands to dismantle all NATO infrastructure in countries that have entered the Alliance after 1997. At the same time, ISW noted that Putin's statements that Russia is not interested in NATO invasion, also very similar to the Kremlin's persistent statements at the end of 2021 and early 2022-on the eve of a full-scale invasion. Then he said that Russia did not intend to invade Ukraine.
"This interview is probably a deliberate attempt to distort the Russian military threat as a imaginary and artificial fiction of NATO," is added to ISW in the report. "Putin seeks to weaken NATO for two decades and requires changes in the Alliance, which would mean its breakdown.
On December 17, Putin stated that Russia has no "territorial disputes" with NATO countries to mask its actual long -term purpose: to weaken the unity of the event and to force NATO to abandon its basic principles such as "open door policy" that allows the Alliance to be on its own The discretion of the new members and assigned to the NATO Charter.
" The Democratic Initiatives International Security Expert Taras Zhovtenko says in a comment on focus that this is understood by the Kremlin technology - when he is about to do something, he usually always tries to convince everyone first that he will not do it. "Considering the rather aggressive tone of the Russian President and his anti -Western propaganda, we can assume that certain plans for hybrid aggression against the Alliance and attempts by military provocations to the Kremlin are.
In the end, we saw the provocation of the migrant crisis, first on the border of Poland in 2021, on the border of Finland. These are attempts to use hybrid tools against NATO member states in order not to provoke a reaction in the form of article 5, because it is not a full-fledged attack as an aggressive invasion, "he explains.
But it is the use of hybrid tools and the reading of NATO reactions and its individual Member States is what Russia is doing and will intensify as much as possible in the near future. And too next year, when the issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO can be considered more substantive. "You can be sure that Putin's propaganda will use this situation to take additional escalation steps. We also see that the Alliance also began to objectively evaluate the security situation in Europe.
NATO summit in 2023 testified to very serious strategic decisions that the Alliance also sees the real threat of a probable military clash with Russia and takes 2-3 years to prepare NATO countries for the possibility of such a potential threat to European security, ”Zhovtenko adds. Political scientist Oleg Lisny notes that Putin seems to have forgotten that NATO was a defensive block. Does not attack, his doctrine does not even prevent an attack. "Therefore, it is just a game of public.
He tries to draw attention to his requirements - the Alliance must return to the borders of 1997. But after attacking Ukraine, NATO became only closer to the Russian Federation, having attached Finland. Focus political scientist. Putin's recent statements, starting from the straight line and the College in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, concerned the geopolitical component.
But they are directed by the internal consumer, emphasizing what the Russian leader will focus on during the future election campaign. "Elections are approaching in Russia, and Putin wants to win a convincing victory. And therefore makes the basis of his election campaign not military success. And there are no globally. Namely the theme of confrontation between the event. So it says that Russia is in danger, everywhere enemies, country It is necessary to defend itself.
But Russia is hardly underestimated by the Alliance. In order for them to think that it is weak, Russia would not have stopped from a new attack, "the political scientist of the forest adds. We recall, even when Russia was defeated in Ukraine, the Kremlin has never said that Ukraine reflects attacks and liberates territories, and the fact that Russia is fighting with a collective event.
"Remember, as one of the propagandists said, they say that Kiev was actually captured, but now we are fighting with NATO. In Russian society, there is a request for the enemy, and this enemy should be great. Ukraine is not such a great enemy, and NATO is just coming. It is unlikely that Russia will take an attack on NATO, but will always provoke the Alliance. They test the nervous system and act on a very painful point of NATO-on article 5th,-he notes.
-Baltic countries, for example, constantly express an informal doubt. All meetings, they always declare that they are under NATO umbrella, but they are small countries, and hint at a possible offensive of Russia. The fact is that article 5 has never been used before, so Russia may want to try to check if apply". That is, those messages with which Vladimir Putin will officially go to the election process are heard.
"On the other hand, we understand that this aggressive geopolitical course, which he repeatedly proclaims, essentially originates from the propaganda of the Soviet Union. In fact, the Russian Federation is now returning to the classical narratives NATO is the main regional enemy. It is Putin's attempt to restore, at least for an internal audience, to bring the Russian state closer to the status of the Soviet Union 2. 0.
But we understand that with the strategic failure of Putin in Ukraine in Ukraine no real restoration of Russia as Super State Zhovtenko adds at the global level at the global level. And these statements were made after US President Joe Biden and China Si Jinping in November in San Francisco agreed on the conditional division of the world between them without taking into account Russia.
"That is, Putin with his geopolitical fantasies moved to the side," he notes, and adds that Putin has nothing left to create a picture in the domestic "market". "But threats, on the one hand, is part of Putin's election campaign, and on the other, the real geopolitical tools he will try to use. In the end, he will need to a propaganda picture he draws for his population. statements about the creation of a separate military district, as opposed to NATO Finland.
Hence the threats and direction of Finland and the Baltic countries. He is no longer diplomatically expressing these threats that is an attempt to fill this propaganda template with Soviet times, which is prepared for his own The Russian population, at least some content.
We all understand that given the state of the Russian army and economy during the full -scale war of Russia against Ukraine, Russia will really take several more years to be able to threaten military action directly to the North Atlantic Alliance, " - says Zhovtenko. If we talk about such statements from the beginning of the full -scale war of Russia against Ukraine, here we have to remember that Russian aggression is not just a military invasion, but a hot war. In particular, hybrid.
In this context, most of the mentioned statements and threats of Russian representatives, ranging from the top political leaders and ending with the ordinary MPs of the State Duma, were aimed at trying to sow some fear among our Western allies, because in parallel, different ideas about nuclear collision between the nuclear Super -states, about the Third Nuclear War, which will lead to the end of the current human civilization.
Secondly, it is used as a hybrid instrument aimed at sowing fear and doubt in our allies, and whether it is necessary to continue to help Ukraine and resist the Russian Federation. "It is also a tool to sow discord and split our Western allies.
Next to those who would begin to doubt and fear the third world, repeating these theses in hearing would be a large group of Western countries that would not pay attention to the Kremlin's hybrid influence and continue to protect themselves and Recover Russian aggression, " - Zhovtenko. At the same time, Russia is making efforts, in particular in the information field to weaken the unity of NATO.
And the greatest concentration of these threats appears just when Ukraine has to get new large Western aid bags. Such stages were noticed, on the eve of the receipt of howitzers, the Himars volley fire systems, the anti -aircraft missile systems Patriot. That is, Russia attacked in the information field every time it realized that Ukraine would receive another tool that would seriously affect the situation on the battlefield.
The hybrid propaganda machine and the Kremlin thus tried if not to distract the next supply of weapons to Ukraine, at least to delay it or put it on a pause. The same thing happens now. "The Kremlin plays, for example, through its satellites, such as Hungary, which are at the same time in NATO and retain strong links with the Russian Federation, strengthening them," Oleg Lisz notes. "They also swing the unity of the EU and NATO.
that after the electoral cycles, more states will appear that will only live for themselves. In many countries there are powerful campaigns where Russians work with the fears of each country. In Germany, they affect the part of Germany that associates themselves with the Russian Federation, somewhere with the Russian Federation. once belonged to the social camp. In France and the US, they work with target audiences and problematic nuances, inflating them.