Russia in 2025 will be forced to go into defense - The Economist

The biggest problem for the Russians is tanks and BMPs, which are removed from the conservation of Soviet times and which are also not endless stocks, journalists said. In Russia, the reserves of the Soviet times are over, which is why it will have to collapse the offensive in Ukraine and change the position from the offensive to the defensive. The Economist writes about it.

"The question now is not so much whether Ukraine can continue the struggle, but how long Russia will be able to maintain the current rate of its operations," the material reads. Journalists explained that the widely advertised Russian offensive on Kharkiv, which began in May, is exhausted and the key to Russia is not human resources, but technology.

"Despite all the conversations that Russia has become a military economy, spending about 8% of its GDP for military expenditures, it is able to replace stunning losses of tanks, armored vehicles of infantry and artillery, only removing from storage and restoring stocks accumulated in Soviet times. Although these stocks are huge, they are not limitless, " - emphasized in the material.

According to Western intelligence, in the first two years of the war, Russia lost about 3,000 tanks and 5,000 other armored vehicles. The Dutch reconnaissance site with open sources of Oryx estimates the number of losses of Russian tanks, for which there are photos or video docas, at 3235, but suggests that the real figure is "much higher".

According to journalists, the tanks and BMP are the greatest problem of the occupation army, because they are crucial for any large-scale ground offensive operations. Experts who have communicated with The Economist believe that, at the current rate of wear, Russian tanks and infantry vehicles that are stored will reach a "critical exhaustion point" by the second half next year.

It is also difficult to restore the equipment removed from stocks, since Ukraine, Georgia and Eastern Germany in Soviet times were important centers of weapons production and its components. For example, Kharkiv was the main manufacturer of towers for T-72 tanks. Another serious problem is the production of artillery trunks. In some hot spots, the Gubitsa barrels need replacement in a few months, as the Russian army prevails in a ratio of 5 to 1 and can allow the use of much more ammunition.

Analyst Richard Verecker told reporters that by the beginning of 2024, about 4,800 trunks had been replaced. "If nothing changes, by the end of this year, Russian troops may have to change their position to more defensive. It may become obvious by the end of the summer," the material reads. Accordingly, journalists emphasized that the interest of President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin in the conclusion of a temporary truce would also grow.