Risks under control. Can you count on the stability of the exchange rate during the war
Thank you for being with us. The balance of payments appeared on the results of the three quarters of the war year. This is important - the balance of payments affects financial stability and, more important for citizens - on relative course stability. The latest trends testify to this. First of all, in 9 months of 2022, the export of goods amounted to $ 30. 5 billion, declining against the same period last year by 31. 6%. However, in recent months, the dynamics of commodity exports has improved.
In September, exports of goods amounted to $ 3. 9 billion - the best indicator since the beginning of the war. Agrarian products with a large separation remain the main article of Ukrainian exports, providing 2/3 of the revenue in September. In 9 months, agricultural raw materials and food (goods 1-24 UKTZED) were exported by $ 16 billion and although compared to the same period last year, such exports decreased by 10%, its share in the total export structure increased from 40 to 52. 4 %.
During the three quarters, imports of goods continued to recover, also reaching the greatest importance in September since the war ($ 4. 9 billion), but at a lower rate than exports. As a consequence, the trade deficit has improved in September to $ 1 billion, which is the best result in the third quarter and the second indicator since the beginning of the year. In the first three quarters, this figure was almost minus $ 9 billion.
Agrarian products with a large separation remains the main article of Ukrainian exports, providing 2/3 of revenue in September. The balance of trade in services remains negative both due to losses in the export of transport services and significant expenses of Ukrainian refugees abroad, which is expressed in increasing imports under the article "Traveling". The negative balance in September has reached almost $ 1.
2 billion, which is the worst since the beginning of the year, and for the first three quarters 1 minus $ 6. 1 billion. . It is a very significant gap, but this year, when it is covered with a significant stock with a positive balance of primary and secondary income-stable wages, transfers from abroad, significant amounts of humanitarian and grant care. . Due to this in a simplified form, one part of the balance of payments (current account), despite the war, remains positive.
Following the results of September, the current balance of payments has increased by $ 1. 9 billion to $ 9. 6 billion over 9 months. As for the second part of the balance of payments - the financial account, in September, its negative balance expanded to $ 2. 6 billion, which is the maximum this year. The reason is the acceleration of the outflow of currency by private sector transactions (through trade loans, cash outside banks, interbank operations).
Since the beginning of the year, a financial account was about $ 14. 5 billion. Therefore, the total balance of payments in 9 months was a minus $ 5. 9 billion, which is better than in the first half of the year, when it reached $ 8. 1 billion. The reason Improving the situation is to reduce foreign trade deficits and considerable external assistance in the second half of the year. As a result of the year, the balance of payments should be reduced to $ 4. 9 billion.
For comparison, in 2014, due to much smaller shocks for the economy, the deficit reached $ 13. 3 billion. This year, the deficit was funded at the expense of foreign exchange reserves. The latter, on September, decreased to $ 23. 9 billion (three months of import). However, taking into account external assistance in October ($ 4 billion), reserves should rise to more than $ 25 billion by early November, and by the end of the year, according to the NBU, reserves can reach $ 26 billion.
The latest payments tendencies indicate that Ukraine's external position remains Vulnerable, including because of the incomprehensible prospects for the conservation of the grain agreement, but as a war, the outflow of currency is moderate. Due to the reduction of foreign trade deficits and significant external assistance in the second half of the year, the situation is improving. Of course, in the near future the state of payments will be determined by the course of hostilities.