"Shahda" over Poland: Why did the air be knocked down the drones and what Warsaw and NATO's response will be
Polish and union aviation was raised, air defense and radars were activated, and the Awacs Saab 340 AEW & C aircraft was involved in the sky. According to the military command, these actions were preventive - they are aimed at ensuring the safety of citizens, especially in border areas. F-16 fighters were raised in the air and airports in Rzeszow and Lublin-as well as several others-temporarily closed due to "unplanned military activity".
The operational command later informed that Poland's airspace was repeated by "drone-like objects" and their own forces used weapons to neutralize them. The search for fragments and places of falling drones is ongoing. The Associated Press reports that the "huge number" of Russian drones broke the borders of Poland. Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed that those that were threatened were destroyed. The closure of Warsaw-Schopen Airport was also part of the security measures.
Local sources report that the drone has hit a residential building in Viriki, in the east of Poland, damaging the roof, but without casualties. In the Lublin region, the wreckage of drone and its parts near the cemetery were found. According to political scientist Oleg Posternak, such an event (the planned violation of Poland's airspace by Russian drones) should have happened sooner or later. "This is a typical Putin's handwriting.
When he cannot achieve his strategic goals in the war against Ukraine, which does not bring him the desired results, he goes to escalation. The only option for the Kremlin in such a situation is to expand the conflict, translating it to another format," the political scientist said. In this case, it is not an ordinary border incident and not two or three drones that have flew into the NATO country. It is a whole swarm of drones.
They penetrated deep enough into the territory of Poland, at least three voivodes, where their confusion was recorded. Not only Poland but also NATO, including the Netherlands, was raised to intercept. "It testifies to several things. First, Putin is not limited to any obligations, peaceful arrangements or diplomatic hints. He is ready to zoom in conflict. Second, the Kremlin tries to show that Article 5 Washington Treaty on Collective Security does not work or will not be applied. NATO - Poland.
The SBU Explorer, Military Expert Ivan Stupak believes that the invasion of Russian drones into Poland's airspace is not an accident and a single incident. "At first they said, oh, only one. Then - two or three. They would say: yes, there were ten, but do not pay attention. But ten drones cannot" get lost. " The expert draws a parallel: the Poles have the best army on the Eastern NATO flank, the most up -to -date equipment and air defense systems.
However, there are almost no results in the fight against drones. "It's like having a gym with the coolest simulators at home, but not to do. Poland has everything, but the drones cannot knock down," the expert said. In his opinion, there are only two explanations for this situation: "Drones fly very low. In Lithuania, for example, I was told that the local authorities will learn about the flight from the news or after the fall of the device.
People call the police: here, in such a district, the drone has fallen-come-come. " The actions of the Polish government are now limited to the accelerated conscription of reservists, an emergency meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers and consultations with allies. But this is not enough. According to Oleg Posternak, a real answer may be either in the deployment of a powerful air defense system, or in specific steps against Russia and even Belarus, from which part of the attacks are carried out.
"It is also important that drones have fallen into Poland through Ukrainian territory. This gives Ukraine a chance to raise the issue of joint air defense with NATO. It is about Ukrainian or joint with the Alliance of the air defense system to knock goals over our territory, not allowing them to be a threat to NATO. The political scientist says. Is it worth expecting an immediate rigid answer from Poland? Here you need to be realists.
According to the political scientist, the Poles are often ridiculed in society, but this caution is also a strategy. Poland does not want and does not plan to go to the war itself, it is obvious. At the same time, this incident is a serious test for the country. And the answer must be weighted and adequate. "Let's not forget that the large-scale Russian-Belarusian training" West-2025 ". The Kremlin and Lukashenko can use provocations for pressure on Poland.
If it responds with hostilities, it risks even more exacerbating the situation-in particular in the area of the so-called Silensk corridor, which is more important for Moscow. The President of the Duda reaction to this incident will have direct consequences for their rating. Also, in general. We will remind, on the night of September 10, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a large number of shock drones such as "Shahaned".