Kursk Special Operation and failures in the south. Will Russia end off the offensive in Ukraine in the fall
The pause is close and then the initiative on the battlefield will go to the Armed Forces. The head of Ukrainian military intelligence Kirill Budanov is convinced that Russia is able to step a maximum of one and a half or two months. The Ukrainian military commander proves his forecasts with the logic and features of fighting, based on the experience of a 10-year confrontation between the aggressor since 2014. None of the parties are physically able to storm for more than two months in a row.
At the same time, Budanov states that the offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation has been going on for the third month, but a pause up to five months in front of the pause. "We know that after the recession and a small lull there will be new attempts by the enemy. We are preparing for this," Budanov stressed. The forecasts of GUR Head also share analysts at the American Institute for War Study (ISW).
The invaders spend material and human resources on attacks throughout the theater of war, including Donetsk region. Tactical successes in the Pokrovsky direction are expensive, the new offensive operation in the summer of 2024 will not be due to the restriction of the enemy's capabilities. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will soon encounter a dense urban building east of Pokrovsk, their promotion will stop partly, hope in ISW.
The Russian army leads a summer offensive by mechanized storms, often leading to large losses of armored vehicles in relatively small sections of the front. This state of affairs burden the army of the Russian Federation, bringing its activity closer to the climax, experts summed up. Even the largest and most capable military organizations cannot step forever. The window of Russia's capabilities can be closed soon, because its techniques are slowly melting.
Moscow will not have any choice other than stopping the offensive and regrouping the troops, writes in the artign Affairs magazine on August 8, Major-General of the Australian Army resignated by Mick Ryan. Kyiv should plan how best to get the decline of the impending Russia. It is not easy to do this, because many factors can not influence Ukraine.
It is impossible to determine when and where the Russian forces reach the phases of the attack of the attack, as well as to be sure of the constant support of the event, he indicates. Military expert Pavel Narozhny in a conversation with focus agrees with the previously announced forecasts. The human resources of the Armed Forces of Russia are gradually exhausted and the first sign of this is a breakthrough in the Kursk region with almost no resistance.
Aviation work is not an indicator of effective coordination, as the Russians could transfer planes from other aerodromes and military units. If the Armed Forces receive from 30 to 40 F-16 aircraft, the Russian air forces will feel high pressure. The degree of lesions on the front of the controlled aircraft will be significantly reduced, shared by the people of the people. The expert also sees major problems with armored vehicles in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
Attempts to break through the Ukrainian defense line with its use are not so much, and in the Kursk direction there were units of modern tanks and armored vehicles. In the autumn and winter, Russia will be engaged in the arrangement of fortifications, recruiting new personnel and the search for weaknesses in the defense of the Armed Forces. Initially, Moscow hopes for a serious breakthrough of the front for the summer campaign in 2024, but the Armed Forces defense line stood.
After the start of the Kursk Special Operation in the Kremlin, they thought about what to do with military events in Russia, says Dmitry Zhmaylo Executive Director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation. "Donetsk and Luhansk regions remain priority, but how they will act in the conditions of breakthrough of the front in their territory, it remains a question," he notes. What is happening in the Kursk region is only the beginning of non -standard military operations in 2024.
There was a strategic dilemma before the Russian military authorities: to continue to step on the Donbass or to neutralize threats within his country, according to the Deputy Director of the Center for Army Research, Conversion and Disarmament Michael Samus. "I am sure that the Russians will be mistaken and continue to attack in the Donbass. The situation in the Kursk region and in the south will develop for them in a negative way due to mistakes.
The occupiers are not guided , the invaders will storm, despite the loss, "he explains the focus. Based on military realities, the active phase of fighting in the Donbass, according to the expert, will last some time. However, Ukraine has taken the initiative, then it all depends on the success of a number of operations of the Armed Forces.
Non -standard maneuvers on different flanks will allow Russian defense so that they tie in the Donbass and do not throw away the troops quickly to other directions. In 2022, the Armed Forces conducted a fraudulent maneuver. At that time, the Russians were stuck in the Donbass with a greater advantage of resources than today, and the Armed Forces released Kharkiv and part of the Kherson region. Now the script is similar, but it has other features, summed up Samus.