War in 2024: The Russian Federation will have "minor successes" and Ukraine will give up the offensive - WSJ

According to WSJ authors, the Armed Forces command will focus on the construction of fortifications and training of soldiers. It is also important that political paralysis is overcome in the West. Russia continues to increase the production of shells and military equipment, using the money earned for the sale of oil. Meanwhile, Ukraine suffers from political inconsistency in the West, which has proven unable to provide the right amount of weapons.

There were also problems with budget financing and mobilization. In the winter of 2024, they do not expect any dramatic changes at the front, but the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will have the opportunity to move the battle line somewhat. The forecasts for the development of the winter were published by The Wall Street Journal. The authors of the WSJ article considered three aspects of the situation: political, economic, military.

They indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has a lot of resources in the third year of the war to hire new soldiers and get new equipment and weapons. For example, in the new year he allocated a record $ 100 billion. on armed forces. At the same time, the event was a situation that journalists called "political paralysis": the EU and the US cannot effectively act to help Ukraine. There are problems within Ukraine: the presence of corruption and mobilization problems.

According to WSJ, in the new year Ukraine will focus on two issues. First, it will build defensive fortifications so as not to give the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Second, it will focus on the mobilization and training of soldiers. The publication also believes that the Ukrainian command "will refuse the offensive".

"If this does not happen, then the next year can become a turning point, after which Ukraine will become more and more disadvantaged," - said the opinion of the Senior Researcher at the Carnegie Kafman Fund. The coming year, the article, may be a "difficult year of defense for Ukraine". However, a certain positive is added by the defense of Avdiivka in Donetsk region, which Russians cannot take for several weeks in a row.

So, the authors of the WSJ, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are unlikely to be able to reach some "breakthrough" in the new year. However, "minor successes" are possible. The publication gives Coffman's opinion to support his estimates about the potential of Russia and Ukraine. The expert stated that the Russian Federation really has an advantage in material resources, but they will not help the Kremlin to conquer Ukraine.

"The material advantages in 2024 are mainly on the side of Russia, but they do not seem so decisive that Russia can achieve its political goals," the WSJ interlocutor said. In turn, the US and the EU should take action in a coordinated manner next year, so as not to waste Ukraine's chance of winning. "It is incorrect to assume that Russia will win war.

However, if next year the right choice is made regarding the approach of Ukraine and Western resources, Ukraine's prospects for success look foggy," the expert's word quoted. It should be noted that at the beginning of November 2023, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, General Valery Zaluzhny, published a column in The Economist, which described the current situation in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

The general listed five points that will help Ukraine not get to the "deadlock" on the battlefield. He also stressed that a technological breakthrough can help. In response to the thesis of Zaluzhny, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed that the war did not find himself in a "deaf corner" and he believes in victory. However, in a few weeks the head of the state acknowledged that the situation in the country is difficult.