The Armed Forces will still get to Donetsk: what will give the Russians the possible capture of Avdiivka - isw

According to analysts, the admiration of Avdiivka will bring only a tactical victory to the Russian invaders. However, the Kremlin will try to set it as a great achievement on the front. Russia will not win the operational level, even if it captures Avdiivka. This was stated by analysts of the American Institute for War Study (ISW). In the report of February 15, they reported that if the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation seizes Avdiivka, the Kremlin will only receive an information victory.

According to analysts, Russian troops carry out offensive operations to capture Avdiivka since the beginning of a full -scale invasion of 2022. Moreover, from the beginning of the fighting in the Donbass 2014, Avdiivka has become a stronghold of Ukrainian defense. "Russian troops began a local offensive on the capture of Avdiivka in October 2023 and only recently began to seek tactical advancement," analysts said.

ISW stated that Avdiivka is a small city where just over 30,000 inhabitants lived before the war. "The Ukrainian troops have long strengthened many surrounding settlements that Russian troops are also trying to capture, and the subsequent Ukrainian positions west and north of Avdiivka are probably fortified in a similar way," analysts said. According to experts, the closest relatively large settlements in the area are located at least 30 km west of Avdiivka.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation demonstrated that they could not carry out a quick offensive by mechanized units. Russian troops have spent a considerable amount of live force and equipment on attempts to capture Avdiivka, and they will probably need a long period of consolidation, recovery and rest before resorting to further offensive actions in the area.

At the same time, as noted in ISW, the potential capture of Avdiivka will give the Kremlin an information and tactical victory on the battlefield. It can be used in the campaign for the election of the President of the Russian Federation in 2024.

The report states that Russian ultra -nationalists, especially those who are connected with the so -called "DNR", have long argued that the capture of Avdiivka is allegedly rejecting Ukrainian forces away from Donetsk and they will not be able to fire it. However, the Armed Forces, according to analysts, will still be able to get to the outskirts of Donetsk from closed positions and from long distance. The admiration of Avdiivka will not change the situation especially.