Ukraine without Patriot: What is waiting for Ukrainian air defense without American anticard
Following the suspension of American assistance, the reserves of important artillery shells in Ukraine may be exhausted by May or June. At the same time, Patriott missiles can end much earlier - within a few weeks. This was reported by CNN, referring to a Ukrainian official. It is known that more than a dozen other countries have Patriot batteries, including Greece, Saudi Arabia, Poland and South Korea, but they reluctantly send them to Ukraine because of the threats they face in publication.
According to analysts, the Ukrainian soldiers use Patriot extremely efficiently, knocking down missiles that, according to Moscow, cannot be intercept, for example, aerobalist missiles "Dagger", but it is very expensive. Currently, it is impossible to finally confirm or refute the information whether Ukraine will not receive missiles from the United States to Patriot.
However, the air expert, a leading researcher of NAU Valery Romanenko notes that due to the lack of intelligence and lack of anticard for Patriot, Ukraine will be forced to spend more rockets to destroy every Russian ballistic missile. 2-3 missiles will need to be launched for reliable damage to such a rocket. "And although rockets are constantly coming, the number of these ammunition remains confidential. However, we do not have a replacement for Patriot.
There is one NASAMS complex, and we have been promised to put it by the end of 2024. Whether it has come or not - it is unknown. I hope that our allies will share their reserves with us for a while, "says Focus Romanenko. Also, according to the expert, in November 2024 in Germany began production of missiles for the Patriot complex, but these missiles are designed not to combat other missiles, but to destroy aerodynamic purposes. This means that Ukraine is currently critical of US supplies.
In addition, we are dependent not only on Patriot missiles, but also on 70% of other types of anti -aircraft missiles, which are also supplied from the United States. Such missiles include AMraam for F-16 and NASAMS complexes, Sidewinder missiles for the same complexes, HAWK rockets, and Vampire and Avenger missiles. Ukraine has received a number of these missiles from Spain, but the majority of them are in warehouses in the United States.
"There are also small rockets that we use to destroy Russian drones and" Shahamed ", and it also comes from the USA. We can not forget about the Styinger's anti -aircraft MAZ, which is also part of this help. Britain has promised us Martlet missiles, which will be more effective for American, but they are only 6 km. rockets, "Romanenko continues.
According to the air expert, the situation remains unstable, and Ukraine may find itself without means of smashing ballistic missiles, which is asked into question Ukrainian air defense. However, there can be no forecasts as far as ammunition is enough. "I emphasize that the last three tranches of assistance were 90% with ammunition. That is, we were handed over some ammunition, such as F-16 fighter rockets and medium-range missiles for Nassams complexes.
However, these missiles were not actually used. Our anti-aircraft complexes of American production, for example, are still a time for us, Allies. Professor of International Policy of Munich University of Bundesver Carlo Masal in an interview with ZDF said that Ukraine will be able to stay without US military support for no more than six months.
According to him, after that time the Ukrainian military will be more difficult to defend, although it is impossible to argue that the front will immediately fall and Russia will quickly occupy the Donbas. The same terms were voiced by a member of the Defense Committee of the Council Fedir Venislavsky.
According to him, during the three years of the war, the domestic military-industrial complex has significantly increased its capacity and capable of compensating for some of the risks, but dependence on American weapons still remains high. This is especially true of air defense systems and rocket launchers. These types of weapons, Venislavsky added, remain key in Ukraine's defense, and their supply is only possible from the United States.
Azerbaijan military analyst Rustamzade has paid attention to one important point in a comment to Focus. According to him, the contribution of the United States to support the Ukrainian army is unique. These are ammunition produced by the American MIC, and military equipment in the form of Abrams and BMP Bradley tanks, as well as air defense systems, such as Patrior SCR. "There will be predominantly SCR problems.
If the US is not transmitted, Patrior's anti -missile capabilities will be difficult to replace. But in general, if you increase financial assistance, Ukraine can partially stop the US contribution and their supply of weapons and military equipment," he emphasized. The analyst added that in general, US systems have cheaper analogues, except Patrior complexes, which cannot be replaced completely, but there is no disaster.