War for the global oil market. The Russian Federation will do everything not to lose income. How to counter it

In September, the situation in the oil market will change slightly - the OPEC Agreement is overlapping on the restriction on oil production. The market players are preparing. Russia is also an OPEC+ agreement in its current format, which provides restrictions on oil production (0. 65 million barrels per day), and is floating in September 2022. Formally, this means that the participating countries will be free from the obligations to contain oil production and the configuration of new contracts.

That is, there is every chance of seeing in October 2022 the purchasing cartel of G7, which will account for 35% of the global oil market. The ultimate goal of the new G7 combination is to reduce the price of oil to at least $ 70 per barrel (Brent standard, now the price is $ 95 per barrel) and to minimize the proportion of hydrocarbons from the Russian Federation, which now occupies 9% of the market with production of 8. 5 million barrels day.

Since the Russian oil is now trading on a exchange exchange with a discount of 30%, due to sanctions restrictions, the terrorist state will at best sell its hydrocarbons at a price of $ 50 per barrel, and its monthly income will fall from the present $ 20 billion to $ 12 billion . Such a Kremlin scenario is absolutely unacceptable, since their budget is already scarce - a recent history of dividends for shareholders of the Russian gas monopolist Gazprom is especially indicative.

Therefore, the aggressor is likely to fight for a place in the global oil market. One of the scenarios of actions of the Russian Federation is the creation of its own international standard of oil (before that its oil was only branded under the variety of Urals) and a new platform for bidding for the formation of the price of oil, which will be independent of the three standards Brent, WTI, Dubai Crude.

It is important here to explain that the main difference between the standard and the oil variety is that the bidding is monitored by international pricing agencies, and subsequently published by the quotations of oil standards become a pricing orientation (benchmark) for the sale of various non -reference varieties.

After creating your own standard and launching the trading platform, the aggressor will conduct procedures to study the demand in the market (the so -called Open Season) and will propose to conclude different types of contracts for stakeholders. Potential counterparties will be underdeveloped states and countries with dictatorial regime. But most of the Russian oil will be purchased by China. Unfortunately, this approach can be implemented.

One of the reasons is the projected growth of global demand for oil in 2023 (approximately 3%), in particular due to the overcoming of the effects of coronavirus pandemic in the Asia-Pacific region and, accordingly, the revival of business activity. If the script for the new standard for various reasons is not embodied by the Russian Federation (for example, a critical portfolio of orders for 3 million barrels per day will not be reached), the terrorist state, most likely, will be more radical.

For example, it will limit their own production and organize terrorist attacks at other oil producers. Therefore, the civilized world should be applied immediately and without any facts of weakening the sanction pressure on the Russian Federation. First of all, to exclude an aggressor state from the UN Security Council and other international organizations for numerous facts of terrorism against humanity.